Bill Kristol: The Tough Guy Really, Really Means It This Time

The Virginia redistricting referendum on the ballot this week marks a rare experiment in non‑partisan map drawing. Voters are asked to approve a temporary, professional commission that will produce districts with a six‑to‑five Democratic tilt, lasting only until 2030. Proponents argue the model curbs gerrymandering and restores competitive races, while opponents fear it merely shifts power balances. For businesses, stable district lines can improve predictability in state‑level policy making, influencing everything from tax incentives to infrastructure funding.

Meanwhile, the Iran conflict has intensified as President Trump publicly threatens to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not reached. Iran responded by briefly closing the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to seize an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Intelligence reports confirm Iran still fields a sizable arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, contradicting official claims of degradation. The diplomatic back‑and‑forth highlights Trump’s unreliable narration of negotiations, raising concerns among multinational firms that rely on consistent foreign‑policy signals for long‑term planning.

The geopolitical flare‑up is already rippling through global markets. Oil prices have jumped roughly five percent, nudging the benchmark back above $90 per barrel, while equity indices show modest declines. Investors are treating any prolonged closure of the Hormuz corridor as a supply‑chain risk, especially for petrochemical and plastics manufacturers. The broader economic narrative includes a tentative market rally on hopes of a quick resolution, yet the lingering threat of sanctions relief or further escalation keeps risk premiums elevated. Companies with exposure to Middle‑East logistics should monitor policy shifts closely and consider hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility.