Jihadist Insurgency in the Sahel and West Africa

The Sahel and West Africa are witnessing a marked escalation in jihadist activity. Al‑Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate (JANI​M) and the Islamic State Sahel Province have sharpened operational tactics, targeting strategic sites such as Niamey and Tahoua airports—both key drone bases. In Mali, a sustained economic sabotage campaign, including a fuel embargo, has crippled supply chains, while Nigeria’s northeast endures large‑scale assaults from Boko Haram, ISWAP, and splinter factions. These attacks exploit porous borders, weak governance, and local grievances, reinforcing a rural‑centric insurgency that threatens regional stability.

Western disengagement created a security vacuum that Russia has eagerly filled. Following the 2020 coups, French forces withdrew and the U.S. closed the Agadez drone hub, prompting Moscow’s Africa Corps to provide limited combat support in Mali and training assistance in Niger and Burkina Faso. Simultaneously, the Trump administration has pursued intelligence‑sharing agreements and considered reopening U.S. ISR flights, while deploying roughly 200 troops to Nigeria for advisory and drone‑surveillance roles. This dual‑track engagement underscores a shifting geopolitical landscape where Russian influence grows as the United States seeks to re‑establish a foothold through capacity‑building rather than direct combat.

Despite bold raids, the capture of national capitals remains improbable; jihadist forces are concentrated in rural border zones, using hit‑and‑run tactics rather than attempting full urban control. Nevertheless, high‑profile attacks near capitals, such as the September 2024 strike on Bamako, keep pressure on governments. The prospect of a capital threat could trigger a coordinated response led by ECOWAS, potentially backed by European partners. Even without an imminent siege, regional cooperation is deepening—Burkina Faso and Ghana, Niger and Nigeria are forging security pacts—offering a framework for intelligence sharing, joint operations, and long‑term counter‑terrorism capacity building across West Africa.