Bessemer's Robotics Predictions #5: The Biggest Robotics Outcomes Will Come From Defense

Why It Matters

Defense‑driven robotics will dominate investment returns and reshape global power dynamics, making it a critical focus for investors and policymakers alike.

Key Takeaways

• Defense drives robotics breakthroughs, historically echoing radar, GPS origins.
• Nations view robotics as battlefield power balance, spurring massive investment.
• Defense robotics firms command valuation premiums over civilian counterparts.
• US and China treat robotics race as existential, backing private sector.
• Largest robotics outcomes in next 2‑5 years will emerge from defense.

Summary

Bessemer’s latest robotics outlook argues that defense will generate the sector’s most significant breakthroughs over the next few years. The firm points to a long‑standing pattern where military needs have birthed transformative technologies—radar, GPS, and even the internet—now being replicated in modern autonomous systems.

Today, countries recognize that advanced robotics can tip the balance of power on the battlefield, prompting unprecedented government spending. Bessemer’s data shows defense‑focused robotics firms consistently trade at valuation premiums versus their civilian peers, reflecting heightened demand and perceived strategic importance.

The analysts cite a chart illustrating this premium and highlight the United States and China as the two dominant players, each treating the robotics race as an existential competition. Both governments are pouring capital into private‑sector innovators, accelerating development cycles and scaling production.

For investors and policymakers, the implication is clear: the most lucrative and impactful robotics applications will likely emerge from defense contracts and related supply chains. Stakeholders should monitor defense budgets, export controls, and geopolitical tensions as key drivers of the industry’s growth trajectory.

Original Description

Continuing our 2026 robotics predictions series.

Jason Scheller, Investor at Bessemer, breaks down why defense is driving the next wave of robotics innovation — and why the largest outcomes in robotics over the next five years will likely come from the defense space.

Follow Bessemer Venture Partners so you don't miss the rest of the series.

To learn more → https://www.bvp.com/atlas/bessemer-predicts-robotics-and-physical-ai

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