Cold Peace: Engaging DPRK to Reduce Risk and Threat | The Impossible State

Why It Matters

By moving from a denuclearization‑centric agenda to a risk‑reduction framework, the U.S. can lower escalation chances, protect regional allies, and sustain its non‑proliferation credibility.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. should shift from denuclearization demand to risk‑reduction engagement.
• Victor Cha’s ‘Cold Peace’ proposes arms‑control mechanisms without immediate disarmament.
• North Korea sees nuclear arsenal as deterrent against South Korea, not U.S.
• South Korea may need its own nuclear latency to ensure bargaining parity.
• Policy inconsistency and regime‑change goals hinder effective North Korea diplomacy.

Summary

The episode focuses on Victor Cha’s “Cold Peace” concept, which urges Washington to abandon the unrealistic demand for immediate North Korean denuclearization and instead pursue risk‑reduction engagement that mirrors arms‑control frameworks. The hosts—former diplomats and policy experts—argue that U.S. administrations have been in denial about Pyongyang’s nuclear reality and that a new posture must address security concerns without insisting on total disarmament. Key insights include the proposal to scale back aggressive deterrence, introduce safety mechanisms against first‑use, and open limited negotiations on missile programs while keeping South Korea’s security needs in mind. The discussion highlights how past attempts—Clinton, Obama, and recent summits—failed because they mixed denuclearization goals with regime‑change ambitions, creating policy inconsistency. Notable examples cited range from Iran’s nuclear standoff to Libya’s disarmament and subsequent overthrow, and Ukraine’s loss of security guarantees after relinquishing nuclear weapons. Participants stress that North Korea’s nuclear drive is driven more by competition with South Korea than fear of the United States, and that South Korea may need a latent nuclear capability to achieve bargaining parity. If adopted, the “Cold Peace” approach could reshape U.S. strategy, reduce escalation risk, and preserve broader non‑proliferation objectives while acknowledging the peninsula’s geopolitical realities. It signals a pragmatic shift that may stabilize Northeast Asia and restore credibility to American diplomatic efforts.

Original Description

How can we look for ways to engage North Korea, understand the reality of its nuclear status, while at the same time mitigating and reducing risk, and perhaps find a way to establish a peaceful environment that might one day lead to some type of denuclearization? Moderated by Mr. Sydney Seiler, this episode examines new frameworks proposed in Dr. Victor Cha’s recent Foreign Affairs article, “North Korea as It Is: The Case for a Cold Peace." The episode features Amb. Joseph Yun, former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy and Chargé d’Affaires ad interim in Seoul, and Mr. Adam Farrar, former NSC Director for the Korean Peninsula and Mongolia and non-resident Senior Associate with the Korea Chair at CSIS.

A recording of the event will be available on-demand following the livestream. An audio-only version of the show will be available in the Impossible State podcast feed on all platforms.

This event is made possible by the generous support of CSIS.

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