Confronting The Evolving Missile Threat in Europe | IAMD Conference 2026

Why It Matters

Europe’s security hinges on adapting air‑defence postures to a threat that combines high‑tech precision with massed low‑cost attacks, directly influencing defense budgets, industrial policy and NATO’s collective deterrence.

Key Takeaways

• Russian missile salvos now reach thousands nightly, overwhelming defenses
• Drones have become primary Russian reconnaissance and targeting tool
• Low‑cost UAVs and loitering munitions enable massed precision strikes
• NATO must balance high‑end interceptors with affordable, scalable solutions
• Defining “good enough” defense requires new industrial and strategic architecture

Summary

The 2026 RUSI Air‑Missile Defence conference opened with Siddharth Kaushal framing Europe’s air‑and‑missile threat as a convergent, evolving challenge that now dominates anti‑access, critical‑infrastructure and supply‑chain security.

Speakers highlighted how Russian forces have shifted from limited precision strikes to massive, coordinated salvos of cruise missiles, drones and quasi‑ballistic weapons. Drone‑led ISTAR now drives target acquisition, while low‑cost UAVs and loitering munitions such as the Lancet‑3 generate 100‑200 strikes per month, and nightly attacks can exceed 1,000 systems. This duality of high‑end missiles and massed cheap munitions strains interceptor stocks and forces defenders to confront both volume and sophistication.

Examples cited included the Rubicon Center—a Russian unit built to hunt Ukrainian drones and radars—and the dramatic increase from two Geran strikes per month in 2022 to dynamic, 24‑hour planning that floods Ukrainian air‑defence zones with 180‑450 engagements nightly. Ukrainian commanders reported that Russian drones now act as relay nodes, enabling coordinated attacks on air‑defence sites.

The discussion concluded that NATO must redefine “good‑enough” protection, investing in a layered architecture that blends high‑performance interceptors with affordable, scalable solutions and reshapes the industrial base to sustain rapid production. Without such a shift, Europe risks a persistent capability gap against a threat that can overwhelm both technology and logistics.

Original Description

The Russian missile threat has increased by an order of magnitude in both scale and complexity over the past three years. The opening session at RUSI's 2026 Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) Conference examined the technological characteristics of this threat, how it is likely to manifest across specific geographic contexts and levels of conflict and what the implications are for adaptation to the evolving air threat.

Speakers:

Major General Anders Jernberg, Chief of the Norwegian Defence Logistics Organization

Dr Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow, RUSI

Sam Cranny-Evans, RUSI Associate Fellow

Chair: Air Cdre Paul O’Neill, Senior Associate Fellow, RUSI

This year's conference explored the critical IAMD capabilities required for credible territorial defence and successful expeditionary operations.

https://my.rusi.org/events/integrated-air-and-missile-defence-conference-2026/programme.html

Recorded at RUSI, 61 Whitehall, London on 21 April 2026.