Confronting Transnational Crime and Strengthening State Resilience | LASC 2026

Why It Matters

If governments cannot match the adaptability of fragmented, diversified criminal networks, regional instability will intensify, threatening trade, governance, and public safety across the Americas.

Key Takeaways

• Criminal networks fragment, increasing violence across Latin America.
• Diversification into illegal mining, fishing, wildlife fuels resilience.
• Ecuador now primary cocaine transit hub, spikes violent crime.
• Arms‑trade loopholes enable small‑arms diversion to cartels across region.
• Institutional silos hinder coordinated state response to organized crime.

Summary

The panel at LASC 2026 examined how transnational crime is evolving in Latin America and the challenges it poses to state resilience. Participants highlighted a shift from a few dominant drug cartels to a fragmented landscape of competing groups, driving unprecedented levels of violence, especially in previously stable jurisdictions such as Ecuador, which now handles the bulk of cocaine shipments bound for Europe. Data presented underscored the diversification of criminal revenue streams beyond narcotics. Illicit fishing, illegal gold mining, and wildlife trafficking are being integrated into cartel business models, providing lucrative laundering channels and extending criminal governance into neglected territories. The discussion also identified systemic weaknesses in the small‑arms trade, where forged end‑user certificates and lax inter‑agency coordination allow weapons to flow from official stockpiles and private security firms into criminal hands. Panelists offered vivid examples: a former FARC dissident network financing illegal fishing in Brazil’s protected zones, and UK‑supported naval assets targeting cocaine transshipment through Ecuador’s Guayaquil port, where nearly 4,000 violent incidents were recorded in 2025 alone. Lieutenant General John Griffith Spilman warned that merging police and military functions in Colombia hampers trust‑building, while Karina Smeirano stressed that early‑stage authorization checks in the Arms Trade Treaty are critical to prevent diversion. The implications are clear: traditional decapitation tactics are losing efficacy, and states must adopt business‑like analyses of criminal enterprises, improve cross‑border intelligence sharing, and reform institutional structures to separate defense from policing. Strengthening regulatory oversight of arms transfers and investing in state presence in peripheral regions are essential to curb the expanding criminal economy and restore security.

Original Description

How are transnational criminal networks reshaping regional and global security? What joint responses can enhance intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation? How can technology and financial transparency disrupt illicit flows? What lessons can be drawn from regional stabilisation and reintegration efforts?

Speakers:

Jennifer Scotland, Research Analyst, RUSI

John Griffiths-Spielman PhD (LTG Retired), Director of Research, AthenaLab

Carina Solmirano, Head of the Arms Trade Treaty Secretariat

Group Captain Marc Jamieson, Senior Royal Air Force Officer

Moderator: Cathy Haenlein, Director, Organised Crime and Policing, RUSI

Recorded at RUSI, 61 Whitehall, London on 29 January 2026.