Does Ukraine Have the Advantage at the Moment Against Russia? | Inside Story

Why It Matters

The shift suggests Ukraine can project power beyond its borders, potentially eroding Russia’s war‑fighting capacity and reshaping diplomatic calculations in Europe.

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine breached Moscow air defenses with deep strike
• Russia scaled down Victory Day parade over security fears
• Kyiv targets Russian oil and logistics infrastructure
• Russian missiles persist in striking Ukrainian cities
• Experts question if Ukraine now holds strategic advantage

Pulse Analysis

Ukraine’s recent deep‑strike into the Moscow region marks a notable escalation in a war that has largely been fought on Ukrainian soil. By temporarily penetrating Russia’s layered air‑defence network, Kyiv demonstrated both improved intelligence and longer‑range strike capabilities, likely leveraging Western‑supplied precision munitions. The psychological impact on Moscow was evident when the Kremlin trimmed its iconic Victory Day parade, a move that underscores heightened vulnerability and a shift in domestic messaging. This development forces analysts to reassess the conflict’s momentum, especially as both sides adapt tactics after five years of attrition.

Parallel to the high‑profile Moscow raid, Kyiv has intensified a campaign against Russia’s energy and logistics arteries. Repeated attacks on oil refineries, pipelines, and transport hubs aim to disrupt fuel supplies that sustain frontline operations and the broader Russian economy. Such pressure compounds existing sanctions and strains Russia’s ability to replenish ammunition and maintain troop readiness. For Moscow, protecting these critical nodes has become a strategic priority, diverting air‑defence assets and stretching logistical resources, which could blunt its offensive capacity in the coming months.

The broader implications extend beyond the battlefield. NATO observers view Ukraine’s expanding strike envelope as a validation of Western arms transfers, while European energy markets monitor the ripple effects of disrupted Russian oil flows. Simultaneously, Russia’s internal security calculus—evidenced by the pared‑back parade—may influence its diplomatic posture, potentially opening space for renewed negotiations. As both sides grapple with resource constraints and evolving tactics, the conflict’s trajectory will hinge on who can sustain operational tempo while managing domestic and international pressures.

Original Description

There appears to be a shift in the years-long conflict in Ukraine.

Last weekend, Ukrainian forces struck deeper into Russian territory, piercing its air defences in a large strike on the Moscow region.

This came a week after fears of a Ukrainian attack forced Russia to scale down its annual Victory Day parade.

Kyiv's also been relentlessly striking Russia's oil facilities and military logistics, as it tries to disrupt supplies to the frontlines.

All this as Russian missiles and drones continue to target sites across Ukraine.

So, where does the war stand in its fifth year? Does anyone side have the upper hand?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Peter Zalmayev - Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.

Pavel Felgenhauer - Russian Foreign Policy Analyst.

Mark Episkopos - Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program.

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