The assessment highlights limits to external pressure: Iran’s internal weakness does not guarantee political collapse because security forces can suppress dissent, complicating U.S. and allied plans to alter Tehran’s behavior while keeping nuclear risks unresolved.
A Fox interviewee argued that while President Trump offered Iran free civilian nuclear fuel and Tehran declined—raising suspicions about its enrichment intentions—U.S. intelligence sees no clear evidence Iran has restarted a weapons program. The analyst said Iran is weaker than a year ago after economic pain, attacks and mass protests, but stressed that the Islamic Republic retains a monopoly on force through the IRGC and security services. That coercive capacity, the speaker argued, explains why previous crises and public unrest have not produced regime change. The expert concluded that toppling the regime remains a “tough nut to crack.”
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