Four Years After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Can the Stalemate Be Broken?

Why It Matters

The likely prolonged stalemate raises urgent policy and industrial questions for Europe and NATO: sustained conflict will require rapid expansion of sovereign defense production and long-term funding, with significant implications for regional security, military readiness and the costs of supporting Ukraine. Without that ramp-up, the balance of power and deterrence in Europe could shift in ways that increase the risk of further escalation or repeated crises.

Summary

Four years into the war, the conflict looks set to remain a grinding stalemate into 2026 driven by three structural factors: neither side can achieve decisive firepower overmatch, rapid diffusion of commercial drone and countermeasure technologies erodes battlefield advantages, and both armies face persistent manpower shortfalls. A near-collapse of US aid in 2025 has forced Europe to fill gaps, but rising NATO budgets have yet to translate into the sovereign production of the tanks, artillery, missiles and space-based reconnaissance systems needed to change the balance. Russia is rearming rapidly—replenishing armored losses, expanding missile stocks and scaling drone production—while drones are becoming harder to defeat with electronic warfare, extending small-unit strike ranges. Taken together, these dynamics point to continued attrition, limited territorial shifts, and a worsening strategic position for Ukraine absent a major increase in sustained, high-end materiel support.

Original Description

With Russia and Ukraine rapidly adapting to and imitating each other's technical innovations, it seems no side has been able to gain a decisive edge in the conflict after four years.

In this video commentary, Robert Tollast, Research Fellow in Land Warfare, outlines the current manpower challenges for both Ukraine and Russia, and the role of drones in reconnaissance, strikes and logistics, in what is likely to remain a prolonged war of attrition.

Robert also highlights the challenge of translating increased defence budgets in Europe into tangible military capabilities, amid a lack of human reserves and firepower needed for a Ukrainian breakthrough.

RUSI's latest on the war in Ukraine: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/regions-and-country-groups/ukraine

Images and footage sourced from:

UK MOD

Army Inform

Trydence

NATO

Thumbnail image: Army Inform, CC4: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UA_military_FPV_drones_05.jpg