Global Foresight 2036: What Will the Next Decade Bring?

Why It Matters

The projected rise of China as an economic peer and accelerating nuclear proliferation reshape global risk calculations, compelling governments and corporations to adapt strategies, bolster alliances, and invest in resilience to protect economic and security interests.

Key Takeaways

• Survey predicts China will match US economic power by 2036
• Two‑thirds of experts expect global conditions to worsen by 2036
• 41% foresee a multi‑front great‑power war within the next decade
• 85% anticipate new nuclear‑armed states emerging in the next ten years
• Report adds AI video series and under‑the‑radar “snow leopard” phenomena

Summary

The Atlantic Council unveiled its fifth annual Global Foresight 2036 report, a multi‑component effort that combines a survey of roughly 450 geostrategists from 72 countries, a series of “snow leopard” under‑the‑radar trends, and a new video series on artificial intelligence. The event, hosted by Vice President Matthew Kraig, frames the study as a barometer of how the world may look in the next decade and a guide for U.S. and allied policy.

The survey’s top‑line findings paint a bleak picture: almost two‑thirds of respondents believe the world will be worse off in 2036, 41% anticipate a multi‑front great‑power war, and 85% expect additional nuclear‑armed states to emerge within ten years. On the geopolitical balance, China is projected to become a peer to the United States, overtaking it in economic power and matching it in most other dimensions.

Experts quoted at the launch underscored the urgency. A senior China analyst warned that “the rest of the world already sees China as a peer, and the United States has almost zero margin for error,” while another commentator highlighted the paradox of strong U.S. headline numbers masking weak innovation fundamentals. The report also features commentary from Atlantic Council fellows who caution against complacency and stress the need to double‑down on free‑market innovation.

For policymakers and business leaders, the findings signal a tightening strategic environment that will demand renewed investment in technology, stronger alliance structures, and proactive non‑proliferation measures. Ignoring the projected shift in economic power or the heightened risk of conflict could erode U.S. competitiveness and destabilize global markets.

Original Description

On Tuesday, February 10 at 12:00 p.m. ET, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security will host the report launch of Global Foresight 2036, featuring discussions with Atlantic Council senior directors and experts on the direction global affairs may unfold in the decade ahead.

Geopolitics, great-power competition, climate change, and emerging technologies are rapidly shifting the international system and security landscape. To prepare and respond to uncertainty, the United States and its allies and partners must develop forward-thinking strategies for the emerging challenges and opportunities the world will face over the next ten years.

The event will highlight Global Foresight 2036‘s survey findings, assess the future of US grand strategy, China, and Europe, uncover under-the-radar phenomena, and preview a video exploring the future of artificial intelligence.