He Predicted War with China in 2025. Now Retired Gen. Minihan Discusses Why It Hasn't Happened—Yet.

Why It Matters

The memo’s aggressive timeline and risk‑focused doctrine reveal how the U.S. is reshaping Pacific force posture, influencing defense budgeting, alliance coordination, and deterrence strategies amid rising Chinese assertiveness.

Key Takeaways

• Memo warned of possible 2025 conflict with China.
• Air Mobility Command executed rapid Pacific deployment without pre‑exercise setup.
• Memo stressed risk‑taking, delegated authority, and innovation like drone‑launching.
• Leak sparked controversy over classification, tone, and China‑focused messaging.
• General urges faster readiness, stronger alliances, and forward defense posture.

Summary

Retired four‑star General Mike Minahan sat down with the Atlantic Council’s Indo‑Pacific Security Initiative to explain a 2023 internal memo that famously warned, “I hope I’m wrong, but I think we will fight in 2025.” The document, drafted after he took command of Air Mobility Command in 2021, was intended to accelerate preparation for a contested Pacific environment and was leaked to the public three years later, prompting a viral debate.

The memo outlined a dramatic shift in training: moving a continental‑U.S. exercise into the Pacific and launching directly into the employ phase without the usual two‑week “white‑card” preparation. It urged commanders to accept higher risk, granted delegated authority to act without higher‑level permission, and even floated innovative concepts such as launching drones from KC‑135 aircraft. Minahan emphasized that comfort with risk meant insufficient risk‑taking, and he classified the order for official use before it was stripped of markings and posted online.

Key moments from the interview include Minahan’s candid admission that the memo was deliberately provocative, his quote, “If you’re comfortable with the risk you’re taking, you’re not taking enough risk,” and his reflection on the leak’s impact on context. He also highlighted his recent senior delegation trip to Taiwan, describing the island’s sophisticated defense posture and reaffirming U.S. commitment to forward‑defense within the first island chain.

The discussion underscores that, despite the 2025 conflict not materializing, the U.S. military remains focused on accelerating readiness, integrating allies, and maintaining a credible deterrent in the Indo‑Pacific. For policymakers and defense industry leaders, the memo’s legacy signals a push for faster acquisition, mission‑command authority, and deeper joint‑force coordination to counter a pacing threat that China continues to articulate.

Original Description

Indo-Pacific Security Initiative (IPSI) Distinguished Fellow General (Ret.) Mike Minihan sits down with IPSI Associate Director Kyoko Imai for a retrospective interview unpacking his thoughts three years after his memo ordering his command to begin preparations for a potential war with the PRC in 2025 was leaked.

0:00 - Introduction

1:01 - Context around the leaked memo

3:27 - What the memo entailed

6:28 - Responding to claims the memo was 'too strong on China'

11:17 - Thoughts on current US strategy in the Indo-Pacific

14:34 - Is Taiwan ready for a Chinese incursion?

17:04 - Balancing diplomacy, strategy, and strength

22:13 - Closing