How China & Russia View Trump’s Greenland Policy
•February 20, 2026
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Why It Matters
Understanding the true strategic stakes in the Arctic prevents misdirected U.S. efforts like the Greenland push and highlights the need to counter the growing Russia‑China alliance that threatens Western security interests.
Key Takeaways
- •Arctic competition intensifies as ice melt unlocks resources.
- •Russia relies on China for Arctic development amid sanctions.
- •Trump's Greenland push misaligns with actual Russian‑Chinese maritime interests.
- •NATO allies’ intelligence sharing counters Russian submarine activity in high north.
- •Erosion of Arctic governance fuels uncertainty for U.S. strategic planning.
Summary
The video examines how China and Russia perceive President Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland, framing it within the broader resurgence of great‑power competition in the Arctic. As climate change thins sea ice, new shipping lanes and untapped hydrocarbon deposits are becoming commercially viable, prompting both Moscow and Beijing to deepen their strategic partnership to exploit these opportunities. Key insights include the erosion of Cold‑War arms‑control regimes, the sidelining of the Arctic Council, and the reality that Russian‑Chinese maritime activity is concentrated far from Greenland. The hosts argue that Trump’s rhetoric about annexing Greenland distracts from the genuine security challenges posed by Russian submarine deployments near the Kola Peninsula and China’s long‑term ambition to secure a polar “Silk Road.” Notable moments feature the Norwegian prime minister warning of Russian submarine threats, the “milkshake” metaphor describing China’s extraction of Russian energy assets, and a visual illustration of how China would have to traverse the Russian Arctic to reach the Western Hemisphere. These examples underscore the misalignment between U.S. public posturing and the strategic calculus of its rivals. The implications are clear: U.S. policymakers must shift focus from symbolic territorial claims toward reinforcing NATO intelligence sharing, revitalizing Arctic governance mechanisms, and countering the Russia‑China partnership that is reshaping the high‑north geopolitical landscape.
Original Description
Carnegie's Sasha Gabuev and Isaac Kardon discuss how China and Russia perceive the Trump administration's approach to the Arctic region. Considering Greenland, in particular, they evaluate the new factors driving great power competition in the Arctic.
Gabuev and Kardon connect Greenland to Washington’s broader hemispheric defense policy, explaining how Beijing and Moscow have interpreted America’s actions in Venezuela and Panama as well, and what they mean for those great powers in their (re)emerging spheres of influence.
They also cover the NATO alliance and its long-standing success in minding the GIUK gap; the growing “shadow fleet” providing China’s sanctioned oil and keeping the U.S. navy tied up chasing old tankers; China’s self-appointed status as a “near-Arctic state” – and America’s de facto “near-Arctic” position, except for non-contiguous Alaska, which straddles China’s sole access point to the Arctic Ocean. Carl Jung and Leo Tolstoy make cameos.
Related Reading & Resources
• Financial Times op-ed:
• Foreign Policy essay:
• Podcast discussion preview:
Further analysis from Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center
• Arctic energy projects overview:
• Russia’s Arctic nuclear threat:
• China–Russia cooperation in the Arctic:
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