Is Russia’s War Machine Running Out of Steam?

Why It Matters

The weakening of Russia’s military and growing internal fissures undermine the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the Ukraine war, raising the stakes for Western policy and regional security.

Key Takeaways

• Russian casualties approaching 40,000 per month, many permanently disabled.
• Ukraine's drones and air defenses erode Russian territorial gains.
• Prominent military bloggers openly criticize Kremlin's war strategy.
• Economic strain and elite defections signal growing regime fissures.
• Putin's security tightening hints at fear of internal coup.

Summary

The Atlantic Council panel examined whether Russia’s war machine is losing momentum after four years of conflict in Ukraine. Speakers highlighted a stark slowdown in territorial gains, mounting battlefield losses and an unprecedented level of internal dissent within the Kremlin’s own circles. Key data points included monthly Russian casualties near 40,000, with roughly 60% of the wounded unable to return to combat, and the failure to secure any net territory in recent months. Ukraine’s expanding drone fleet and layered air‑defense systems have repeatedly struck Russian logistics and hydrocarbon facilities, exemplified by the fire‑storm in the Black Sea port of Tuaps. Panelists cited outspoken military bloggers such as Girkin and Kalashnikov, who have begun openly questioning the war’s conduct, and noted elite cracks like the flight of former deputy minister Denis Bayev to the United States. Economic pressures—rising casualty costs, sanctions, and rumors of bank‑account seizures—further erode elite confidence. The discussion concluded that while the regime remains formally intact, its stability is increasingly fragile. Continued Western pressure and sustained Ukrainian momentum could push systemic risks beyond Putin’s capacity to manage, potentially reshaping Russia’s political landscape within the next few years.

Original Description

The Eurasia Center, in collaboration with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, examine the implications of Russia’s grinding war, struggling economy, and tightening internet controls.