Is the U.S. Prepared to Counter China?

CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)May 12, 2026

Why It Matters

Without closing these capability gaps, the United States risks losing deterrence credibility and may face costly escalation in the Indo‑Pacific, affecting global trade and security.

Key Takeaways

  • U.S. submarine fleet remains unrivaled in Indo‑Pacific deterrence.
  • Long‑range anti‑ship missile stockpiles are critically insufficient for future conflicts.
  • Base hardening and underground shelters needed against PLA missile strikes.
  • Multi‑year munitions contracts and drone production must accelerate.
  • Congressional‑Pentagon cooperation essential for rapid capability upgrades in Indo‑Pacific.

Summary

The video assesses whether the United States is equipped to deter or defeat a potential conflict with China in the Indo‑Pacific, emphasizing that deterrence must be backed by credible war‑fighting capabilities.

It highlights the U.S. submarine fleet as its strongest asset, but points to glaring shortfalls in long‑range anti‑ship missiles, munitions stockpiles, and the multi‑year production cycles that delay delivery of critical weapons.

Operation Epic Fury’s limited impact on ammunition reserves, the vulnerability of bases in Japan, the Philippines and Guam to PLA medium‑ and long‑range rockets, and China’s inability to conduct effective anti‑submarine warfare are cited as both challenges and opportunities.

The analyst urges immediate multi‑year contracts for strike munitions, accelerated drone output, hardened underground shelters, and coordinated congressional‑Pentagon funding, arguing that without these steps U.S. credibility and regional stability could erode.

Original Description

CSIS’s Seth G. Jones breaks down the urgent gaps in U.S. defense readiness across the Indo-Pacific.
To read the full brief, please visit csis.org.
Product of the Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab
Produced by Cera Baker
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