Defense

Is Ukraine Turning the Tide?

CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies)•Jun 4, 2026

Why It Matters

A shifting battlefield dynamic reduces Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. aid while deepening Russia’s internal economic and political pressures, reshaping investment and policy calculations across Europe and beyond.

Key Takeaways

  • •Ukraine’s drone program now strikes deep inside Russian territory.
  • •Domestic morale in Ukraine stabilizes despite harsh winter hardships.
  • •EU financial aid of €90 billion reduces Ukraine’s reliance on US support.
  • •Russia faces fuel shortages, inflation, and declining Putin approval.
  • •Conscription challenges persist, but Ukraine adapts with tactical innovations.

Summary

The video asks whether Ukraine is finally turning the tide against Russia, featuring on‑the‑ground insights from two Europe‑Russia experts who recently visited Kyiv. Their observations focus on military, economic and political dimensions that suggest a shift in momentum.

Ukraine’s home‑grown drone fleet is now hitting strategic Russian targets, from oil facilities to the St. Petersburg economic forum, creating visible disruption and eroding Kremlin morale. At the same time, a €90 billion EU financial lifeline has steadied Kyiv’s economy, allowing the country to operate with far less dependence on fluctuating U.S. aid. Domestic sentiment appears resilient after a brutal winter, with citizens citing the national anthem’s line “we are still standing” as a rallying cry.

Experts highlighted stark contrasts: Russian citizens report fuel rationing, inflation and a noticeable dip in Putin’s approval—down 8‑10 points since late 2025—while Ukraine grapples with conscription shortfalls but compensates through first‑person view drones and flexible front‑line tactics. A vivid image of black smoke over the St. Petersburg conference underscored the symbolic reversal of Russian confidence.

If the trend continues, Ukraine may sustain a longer‑term strategic advantage, reshaping defense‑industry supply chains and prompting investors to reassess risk exposure in both markets. Reduced reliance on U.S. assistance and persistent Russian economic strain could also influence future diplomatic negotiations and reconstruction financing.

Original Description

Four years into the war, Ukraine may finally have the upper hand. Will speaks with Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya about their recent trip to Kyiv, Ukraine's key advantages, Russia's challenges, and if the shifting balance of power means the war may finally end soon.
Max Bergmann and Maria Snegovaya, "War, Inflation, and Putin's Paranoia: has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift?" CSIS, May 14, 2026.
Max Bergmann and Donatienne Ruy, "Reflections from Ukraine, Crisis in the UK, and the EU's Corruption-Fighting Toolkit ft. Kövesi," CSIS, May 22, 2026.
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