Middle East Historian on How Regional Tensions Could Reshape Middle East Alliances

Why It Matters

Iran’s entrenched regime and renewed nuclear drive threaten oil markets and could force a realignment of Gulf alliances, compelling the U.S. to reconsider its limited‑war strategy.

Key Takeaways

• US cannot remove Iran's regime without ground invasion.
• Iran's drones and missiles continue threatening Israel and Strait of Hormuz.
• Internal opposition fragmented; regime maintains power through brutal coercion.
• New Supreme Leader Moshabah Kame will intensify nuclear ambitions.
• Gulf states fear Iranian attacks but dread chaos from regime collapse.

Summary

The interview with Princeton Near‑Eastern scholar Bernard Hegel focused on how recent U.S. strikes against Iran could reshape alliances across the Middle East. Hegel argued that a short‑term U.S. operation cannot topple the Islamic Republic without a full‑scale ground invasion, and that Iran’s remaining drone and missile arsenals keep it a potent regional threat.

He highlighted Iran’s ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil and gas prices, while noting that internal dissent remains fragmented and brutally suppressed—tens of thousands killed in recent crackdowns. The appointment of the young Supreme Leader Moshabah Kame signals a hard‑line shift, with renewed emphasis on rebuilding military capacity and pursuing nuclear weapons.

Hegel cited specific examples: Iran’s continued attacks on Israel, Saudi desalination plants, and Gulf‑state infrastructure, and the legacy of the 12‑day war that weakened its forces. He warned that Gulf nations are caught between containing Iran and fearing a civil‑war spillover that could mirror Libya’s chaos.

The analysis suggests that U.S. policymakers must weigh short‑term military gains against long‑term market volatility and the risk of a destabilized Iran provoking broader regional conflict, potentially reshaping security partnerships and energy supply chains.

Original Description

Princeton University Professor of Near Eastern Studies Bernard Hayke speaks about the durability of its Islamic regime as the Iranian war continues and its new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei.