Military Analysis of the War with Iran

Why It Matters

Unclear goals and Iran’s persistent air denial threaten global oil flows and force costly, prolonged U.S. military commitments, reshaping defense budgeting and geopolitical risk assessments.

Key Takeaways

• Air strikes cripple Iranian conventional forces but miss strategic goals.
• Iran retains air denial, keeping Strait of Hormuz partially blocked.
• U.S. and Israel struggle to translate tactical wins into political outcomes.
• Asymmetric drone and speedboat tactics force costly U.S. missile responses.
• Unclear objectives risk prolonged, resource‑intensive naval blockade implementation.

Summary

The panel, led by Georgetown’s Rob Dineen, examined the military dimension of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, questioning whether air power and naval actions are achieving the war’s stated goals.

Participants distinguished two concurrent air wars: a high‑altitude “war of destruction” that has successfully degraded Iranian ships, launchers and missile factories, and a low‑altitude “war of disruption” where Iran’s Shahed drones and speedboats deny air superiority over the Strait of Hormuz, keeping shipping constrained.

General Hodges noted the sheer damage inflicted but called it “almost irrelevant” because Iran still controls the strait. Kelly Grieco labeled the disruption effort a failure of air denial, while Max Boot warned that even sophisticated U.S. air power cannot translate tactical victories into strategic success, citing costly PAC‑3 intercepts against cheap Iranian drones.

The discussion underscored the danger of vague objectives: without a clear political end‑state, the U.S. risks a protracted, resource‑intensive naval blockade and escalating defense expenditures, while oil markets remain vulnerable to further Strait disruptions.

Original Description

Defense analysts and former military leaders discuss the current state of the war from a security perspective, providing their expertise on the challenges on the ground.

Speakers

Kelly A. Grieco

Senior Fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center

Frederick "Ben" Hodges

Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe

Philip M. Breedlove

Distinguished Professor of the Practice and CETS Senior Fellow, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs; Former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Max Boot

CFR Expert, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Presider

Robert Danin

Principal, Georgetown Global Strategies; Senior Advisor, Inter-Mediate; Counselor, Middle East, Dragoman; CFR Member

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