New War Looming in the Horn of Africa? | DW News
Why It Matters
A wider Ethiopia‑Eritrea war would disrupt Red Sea trade routes, raise security costs, and reshape geopolitical alignments across the Gulf and East Africa, affecting investors and multinational supply chains.
Key Takeaways
- •Ethiopia's upcoming elections could trigger renewed conflict with Eritrea
- •Access to Red Sea remains strategic grievance fueling tensions
- •UAE backs Ethiopia; Egypt backs Eritrea, creating rival alliances
- •Regional militias in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia exacerbate instability
- •Spillover risk threatens Horn of Africa’s trade and security
Summary
Ethiopia is poised for a pivotal election, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party expected to retain power. Yet the vote masks a looming confrontation with Eritrea over historic grievances, chiefly Ethiopia’s loss of direct Red Sea access after Eritrea’s 1993 independence.
The dispute is amplified by competing regional alliances: the United Arab Emirates has long armed and financed Addis Ababa, while Egypt backs Eritrea and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces. Eritrean support for insurgent groups in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, coupled with UAE‑backed Ethiopian forces, creates two hostile blocs.
Analysts cite Abiy’s description of Ethiopia as a “geographical prison” and point to the UAE’s involvement in Sudan’s conflict as evidence of the deepening proxy war. Eritrea’s backing of rebel factions and Egypt’s coordination with the RSF illustrate how internal rebellions have become a theater for external powers.
If hostilities erupt, the Horn of Africa could see a broader regional war, jeopardizing the Djibouti‑based trade corridor, inflating shipping costs, and deterring foreign investment. The conflict also risks entangling the United States and Iran, already strained by their own war, further destabilizing an already volatile market.
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