Security Cooperation in the South Atlantic and Antarctic | LASC 2026

Why It Matters

The erosion of the Antarctic Treaty threatens to turn a historically cooperative scientific zone into a flashpoint for great‑power competition, jeopardizing global climate stability and maritime security.

Key Takeaways

• Antarctic Treaty faces pressure from expanding national footprints and resource interests
• China, Argentina, and others are building new bases and icebreakers
• Climate‑driven ice loss makes Antarctica more accessible, increasing tourism and exploitation
• Technological advances enable surveillance, AI, but also cyber‑vulnerability in stations
• Multilateral cooperation essential to keep Antarctica a science‑peace zone

Summary

The LASC 2026 panel examined how the United Kingdom and its Latin American partners can sustain peaceful governance under the Antarctic Treaty System amid rising strategic competition. Moderators highlighted the shift from a Cold‑War consensus to a landscape where hard power, resource ambitions, and climate‑driven accessibility are reshaping the continent’s role on the global chessboard. Key insights included a surge in national footprints: China opened the Chin Ling base in 2024, Argentina revitalized its Petrel station, and new icebreakers are expanding logistical capacity. Melting ice is making Antarctica more reachable, spurring tourism, commercial fishing, and interest in critical minerals, while dual‑use facilities blur the line between scientific research and military logistics. The treaty’s enforcement mechanisms remain weak, relying on voluntary compliance that is increasingly tested by unilateral actions. Panelists offered vivid examples: Captain Mike Lavender recalled the treaty’s Cold‑War success but warned that “the treaty is already showing signs of creaking.” Commander Pimementel outlined six drivers of change—global power competition, demographic pressure, climate change, technological advances, economic transformation, and governance inequality—illustrating how each could erode the consensus model. Jane Rumble emphasized the UK’s 2035 Antarctic strategy, calling for stronger inspection regimes to increase transparency of Russian and Chinese activities. The discussion concluded that without reinforced multilateral oversight, Antarctica risks transitioning from a bastion of science and peace to a new arena for geopolitical rivalry, with direct repercussions for South Atlantic economies, global sea‑level rise, and the broader rules‑based international order.

Original Description

How can the UK and Latin American partners reinforce peaceful governance under the Antarctic Treaty System? What are the implications of Antarctic policy for maritime security and resource stewardship? How can joint research initiatives promote trust and prevent strategic competition? What frameworks ensure environmental protection and regional stability?

Speakers:

Commander Vitor Pimentel, Brazilian Navy, UK Defence Futures & Force Design

Gp Capt (ret.) Mike Lavender OBE, RUSI Associate Fellow

Colonel Rodrigo Grunert, Chile’s Air Force attaché

Jane Rumble, Head of Polar Regions Department, FCDO

Moderator: Juan Pablo Toro, Senior Research Fellow, AthenaLab

Recorded at RUSI, 61 Whitehall, London on 29 January 2026