Strategic Trends 2026: Navigating a Fragmenting Global Order

Why It Matters

Understanding the shifting balance of power helps corporations and investors anticipate regulatory, market and security risks, enabling more resilient strategies in a world where regional blocs and great‑power rivalries intersect.

Key Takeaways

• Global order is fragmenting into uneven regional and domain contests.
• Small and middle powers can shape outcomes through fluid regionalism.
• Spheres of influence now intersect with diverse regional integration mechanisms.
• Europe seeks defiant regionalism to resist great‑power pressure.
• Anticipatory governance and resilient architectures are essential for stability.

Summary

The 2026 edition of the CSIS Strategic Trends Report, authored by scholars from ETH Zurich, frames the current international system as a ‘fragmenting global order.’ It argues that disruptions are structural, not episodic, and that competition now plays out across both geographic regions and functional domains such as technology, space and cyber.

The authors map three archetypes of regional response. ‘Defiant regionalism’—exemplified by a re‑energised geopolitical Europe—seeks collective autonomy from great‑power blocs. ‘Instrumentalized regionalism’ describes entities like the Eurasian Economic Union or China’s Belt‑and‑Road Initiative that serve as extensions of a dominant power’s agenda. The majority of states fall into ‘fluid regionalism,’ a hedging strategy where middle powers such as India, Turkey, Brazil or ASEAN members diversify partnerships to preserve strategic flexibility.

Garana Gurkut emphasizes that small and middle powers are not passive; they can act as ‘active architects’ of security architecture. She cites India’s calibrated cooperation with the United States and Turkey’s assertive leverage in the Middle East, as well as the UAE’s unexpected exit from OPEC, as concrete illustrations of fluid regionalism in action.

For policymakers and businesses, the report underscores the premium on anticipatory governance and resilient institutional design. A mosaic of overlapping alliances means that firms must monitor multiple geopolitical fault lines, diversify supply chains, and engage with a broader set of regional institutions to mitigate risk in an increasingly contested world.

Original Description

What do shifting power dynamics, intensifying rivalry among major powers, and growing global fragmentation mean for national security? What is the future trajectory of Europe–China relations? Please join CSIS on May 7 from 10:00–11:00 AM EDT for a conversation on Strategic Trends 2026: Key Developments in Global Affairs, a new report by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zürich. This year’s volume features chapters on shifting partnership architectures, Europe–China relations, emerging technologies on the battlefield, and the militarization of space.

Dr. Gorana Grgić, head of the Global Security Team at CSS; Dr. Gesine Weber, senior researcher in the Global Security Team; Dr. Ivan Zaccagnini, researcher at CSS; and Clémence Poirier, senior cyberdefense researcher at CSS, will join Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and vice president of the Defense and Security Department at CSIS, to discuss the report.

This event is made possible by general support to the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program.

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