Strengthening Surge Capacity: Table-Top Exercise Focused on Protracted Conflict | All About the Base

Why It Matters

A failure to close the surge‑production gap would leave the U.S. and its partners vulnerable in a drawn‑out Taiwan conflict, eroding deterrence and compromising national security.

Key Takeaways

• US industrial base faces a 10‑month surge production gap.
• Table‑top exercise recommends a modern war production board.
• Strategic reserves of chips impractical; focus on rapid diversion.
• Allies can supply, co‑produce, and act as repair depots.
• Long‑range missiles and air‑defense systems are hardest to replace.

Summary

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) convened a tabletop exercise to examine how the United States and its allies could sustain a protracted conflict following a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The scenario extended beyond the typical four‑week war‑game horizon, probing the industrial and logistical challenges of a months‑long campaign.

Participants identified a critical “industrial mobilization gap” between months three and twelve, when existing inventories are exhausted but new production has not yet ramped up. Recommendations included creating a modern war‑production board to coordinate firms, easing antitrust constraints, establishing rapid‑diversion authority for semiconductor chips, building rare‑earth reserves, and pre‑positioning surge‑workforce incentives and civilian‑sector machinery.

Key examples highlighted the difficulty of replacing long‑range precision munitions such as Tomahawks and air‑defense systems like Patriot, THAAD, and SM‑6, which take years to manufacture. The exercise also stressed cyber‑security, hardening facilities against unmanned aerial systems, and leveraging allies as forward repair hubs and sources of spare platforms.

The findings imply that without pre‑emptive legislative, funding, and coordination mechanisms, the U.S. risks a prolonged capability shortfall that could undermine deterrence and coalition effectiveness in the Taiwan Strait.

Original Description

This episode of All About the Base, a video series analyzing critical industrial base topics, assesses the industrial capacity America and its allies need to succeed in a prolonged conflict scenario in the Indo-Pacific theater. The war in Ukraine and the campaign against Iran have laid bare a stark reality: the United States severely struggles to surge production to meet its national security needs. Several war games spelling out potential Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait – and an American-led military response – have also revealed significant constraints on U.S. manufacturing. In the most optimistic outcome of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a CSIS war game estimated that America and its allies would lose 290 combat aircraft and 24 ships after 4 weeks of hostilities. How does the United States quickly rebuild these platforms and break the cycle of vulnerability?

Host Dr. Jerry McGinn, Director of the Center for the Industrial Base, discusses these issues with Professor Mark Cancian, Senior Adviser with the Defense and Security Department at CSIS and the lead for a recent manufacturing security table-top exercise (TTX) detailing an American and allied response to protracted Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Building from the findings of the TTX, they examine policy options for surging defense production, opportunities for closer industrial coordination between government and industry, and pathways for allied co-production and co-sustainment in the Indo-Pacific. Taken together, their analysis demonstrates how mapping and addressing industrial vulnerabilities at home in advance of conflict is essential to provide for the defense of U.S. allies and national interests abroad.

---------------------------------------------

A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world.

Visit https://www.csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world's greatest challenges.

Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve

Follow CSIS on:

• Twitter: https://twitter.com/csis

• Facebook: https://facebook.com/CSIS.org

• Instagram: https://instagram.com/csis/