Talking Export Control Alignment, New 232s, and Trump's Budget Request with Kate Koren

Why It Matters

The proposal could dramatically curtail U.S. semiconductor revenue and reshape alliance dynamics, while escalating U.S.-China tech tensions.

Key Takeaways

• Match Act targets US‑allied gaps in semiconductor equipment sales
• Servicing restrictions could cost US firms up to $1 billion annually
• Bill seeks extraterritorial control of Dutch DUV lithography tools
• Multilateral alignment faces legal, diplomatic hurdles with Japan, Netherlands
• Legislative draft is prescriptive, may shift to NDAA for passage

Summary

The Trade Guys podcast featured CSIS economist Kate Corin discussing two pending export‑control bills—the MATCH Act and the STRIDE Act—aimed at tightening U.S. coordination with allies on semiconductor equipment. The MATCH Act, the newer proposal, addresses two core problems: U.S. firms are barred from selling advanced lithography tools to Chinese fabs while allied firms can supply older equipment, and U.S. companies cannot service existing machines abroad, forfeiting roughly $1 billion in service revenue.

Corin explained that the legislation attempts to level the playing field by compelling allies such as the Netherlands and Japan to adopt matching controls on deep‑ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment, which ASML currently sells to China. Extending extraterritorial jurisdiction to DUV tools, a step down from the already‑controlled EUV machines, raises questions about feasibility, market impact, and the risk of retaliation from Beijing and affected allies.

Key examples highlighted include ASML’s projected 33 % share of Chinese sales by 2025 and the complex service contracts that keep these high‑precision machines operational. Corin warned that forcing retroactive restrictions could strain U.S.‑Dutch relations and provoke Chinese counter‑measures, while noting that the draft bill reads more like a regulation than typical legislation, suggesting it may be bundled into the upcoming NDAA.

If enacted, the MATCH Act could reshape global semiconductor supply chains, compel tighter multilateral export‑control regimes, and force U.S. firms to navigate new compliance costs. However, its success hinges on diplomatic negotiations, the willingness of allies to adopt U.S. standards, and the administration’s ability to balance security goals with industry interests.

Original Description

On this episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Scott talk with Kate Koren, Deputy Director of the Economics Program at CSIS. She discusses the latest efforts in Congress to align U.S. export controls with partners, including the MATCH Act bill. They also cover new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceuticals and metals and the White House's budget request for Fiscal Year 2027.