The Future of Russian Power: Threat Perceptions, Military Reconstitution, and Economic Constraints

Why It Matters

Understanding Russia’s evolving threat perception and military restructuring is essential for NATO’s long‑term deterrence planning and for shaping U.S. and European policy responses to a potentially more aggressive, economically constrained Russia.

Key Takeaways

• Russia feels increasingly insecure after Ukraine war, reshaping threat perception.
• Russian military expands, emphasizing drones, long‑range missiles, and precision strikes.
• Economic constraints limit Russia’s ability to sustain a larger armed force.
• Geography and history drive Russia’s persistent fear of Western encirclement.
• NATO must plan for a decade‑long Russian re‑armament timeline.

Summary

The Carnegie Endowment launched a comprehensive project examining the future of Russian power, arguing that Moscow will emerge from the Ukraine war more insecure, unrepentant, and determined to reshape Europe’s security environment. The initiative maps out seven analytical pillars: shifting threat perceptions driven by a hostile, well‑armed Ukraine and European alarm; lessons learned by the Russian military on the battlefield; geopolitical turbulence from a fractured Middle East and a rising China; disruptive American foreign‑policy approaches; rapid defense‑technology advances, especially drones and nuclear considerations; elite reconfiguration toward war‑time loyalists; and the stark limits of a one‑dimensional, state‑dominated economy. Key insights include Russia’s deep‑seated fear of Western encirclement—rooted in historic invasions of 1812 and 1941—and its drive to create a buffer zone via Ukraine. Militarily, Russia has expanded its force size, integrated precision‑strike capabilities, and now fields roughly 6,500 one‑way attack drones monthly, alongside new cruise‑missile and ballistic‑missile programs. Yet the armed forces suffer from depleted junior leadership, corruption, and a looming retention challenge as the economy struggles to fund a 1.3‑million‑strong contract army. Notable remarks from project scholars highlight Putin’s 2021 claim that Ukraine was a Western puppet, now turned adversary, and stress that the war has turned Ukraine into a “battle‑tested” foe on Russia’s doorstep. The discussion also underscores that any post‑war Russian redeployment will likely concentrate around the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, reinforcing pressure on the Baltic states. For NATO and European allies, the analysis signals a need to plan for a prolonged, possibly decade‑long, Russian re‑armament and doctrinal shift. Defense planners must hedge against enhanced Russian long‑range strike capabilities and consider the economic sustainability of a larger Russian force when shaping deterrence and force‑posture strategies.

Original Description

It is tempting to imagine that whenever the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will be permanently weakened and more inward-looking. That would be a mistake. To energize a rigorous, policy-relevant transatlantic conversation about the Russian challenge—and how to meet it—the Carnegie Endowment’s Russia and Eurasia Program recently launched the Future of Russian Power, a major new interdisciplinary research initiative.

The Future of Russian Power aims to explain why an unrepentant Kremlin will emerge from the war determined to seek revenge against Ukraine and its Western partners, to reconstitute the country’s military power, and to impose its vision of security on the European continent. A sampling of research tied to the initiative, including Eugene Rumer’s recent paper, “Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine,” is now available.

To mark the launch of this project, Carnegie’s Michael Kofman, Dara Massicot, Alexandra Prokopenko, and Eugene Rumer will join moderator David E. Hoffman, former Washington Post editor and foreign correspondent, for a wide-ranging conversation on where Russia stands and what comes next.

Learn more about The Future of Russian Power Initiative: https://carnegieendowment.org/projects/the-future-of-russian-power

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