The Growing Risk of Great Power War: A Conversation with Arne Westad

Why It Matters

Mis‑managed regional crises could trigger a US‑China great‑power war, dramatically raising geopolitical risk for global markets and supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• US war in Iran diverts focus from China rivalry
• Multipolar world increases complexity and risk of great‑power conflict
• Historical parallels compare US‑Britain, China‑Germany, Taiwan to Bosnia/Belgium
• Alliance failures before WWI show dangers of unclear deterrence
• Preventing regional wars is essential to avoid great‑power escalation

Summary

The podcast features Yale historian Arne Westad discussing his new book, The Coming Storm, which warns that a great‑power war between the United States and China is once again possible.

Westad points to the United States’ unexpected war in Iran as a diversion from its declared focus on China, illustrating how multipolar competition creates tangled regional conflicts that can spill over into great‑power rivalry. He argues that the lack of clear strategic objectives and rising mutual distrust mirror the pre‑World War I environment.

He draws historical parallels—US‑Britain versus Germany‑China, and Taiwan’s blend of nationalist, territorial and strategic stakes likened to Bosnia, Belgium, and Alsace‑Lorraine in 1914. Westad also stresses that the alliance system before 1914 failed to provide credible deterrence, allowing a local crisis to ignite a world war.

The implication for policymakers and investors is clear: managing and de‑escalating regional flashpoints, especially Taiwan, is essential to prevent a cascade into a full‑scale great‑power conflict that would disrupt global trade, financial markets, and supply chains.

Original Description

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Arne Westad joins us to discuss his new book, The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History. He explains why the years leading up to World War I, rather than the Cold War, offer a striking parallel from history for today’s U.S.–China relationship and great power competition. He highlights how mistrust, multipolarity, and unclear strategic aims can fuel miscalculation. The conversation examines how flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and India–China tensions could escalate under these conditions, why rapid technological change and weak crisis communication heighten risks, and the steps major powers can take to reduce these dangers.

Arne Westad is an Elihu Professor of History at Yale University. Before joining Yale, he taught at the London School of Economics, where he was School Professor of International History, and at Harvard University, where he was the S.T. Lee Professor of US-Asia Relations.