The Russian Air Force Is Becoming A Bigger Threat
•February 26, 2026
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Why It Matters
Russia’s inexpensive, long‑range glide bombs give it a standoff strike capability that bypasses air‑superiority, forcing Ukraine and NATO to invest in longer‑range missiles and electronic warfare to protect forces and deter escalation.
Key Takeaways
- •Russian glide bomb drops hit 44,000 targets in 2025.
- •UMPK kits improve accuracy, still 25‑meter CEP in practice.
- •UMPB bombs add rocket motor, extending standoff range significantly.
- •Su‑34 sorties sustain ~130 glide bombs daily, roughly two squadrons.
- •NATO must acquire long‑range missiles and EW to counter glide threats.
Summary
The video outlines how Russia’s glide‑bomb program has exploded in 2025, delivering more than 44,000 drops against Ukrainian forces and civilians, and argues that the same low‑cost, long‑range capability could pose a broader threat to NATO if a European flashpoint erupts.
Two families of munitions dominate the campaign: the modular UMPK kit, which can be fitted to 250‑3,000 kg bombs and has gradually reduced its circular error probable from over 25 m to tighter figures, and the purpose‑built UMPB, which already shows better accuracy, is less vulnerable to jamming, and now incorporates a small rocket motor to push its range beyond 50 km. Both are cheap and mass‑produced.
The primary delivery platform is the Sukhoi Su‑34 “Fullback.” Ukrainian intelligence estimates roughly 130 glide bombs are launched each day; assuming a full load of four bombs per aircraft, that translates to about 32 sorties daily—equivalent to two full squadrons operating at a sustained tempo. The VKS has refined tactics, targeting frontline positions, command posts and logistics, forcing Ukrainian units to constantly relocate or risk destruction.
The analysis concludes that without long‑range air‑to‑air missiles, advanced EW suites and deeper integrated air‑defense, Ukraine cannot reliably interdict the Su‑34s, and NATO air forces risk facing the same cheap standoff strike in any future conflict. Accelerated delivery of modern missiles, expanded Patriot or equivalent coverage, and continued sanctions on Russian supply chains are essential to blunt the glide‑bomb threat and preserve air superiority.
Original Description
The Russian Aerospace Force continues its deadly barrage against Ukrainian military positions and civilian areas. But while the glidebomb threat is increasing, in the background the VKS itself has strengthened. What does this mean for European NATO members?
Panzerkonferenz in Vienna 2026 (in gErman)
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Bibliography/Sources (accessed 17/02/2026)
Exclusive: Russia plans to make up to 120,000 glide bombs this year, Ukrainian intelligence says, Reuters, 14 November 2025.
Giovanni Zanier and Kevin Anderson, Countering Russia’s Glide Bomb Warfare in Ukraine, JAPCC November 2025.
How Russia Turns Dumb Bombs Into Deadly Guided Weapons, Ukraine Intelligence Reveals, United 24, 2 Feburary 2026.
In eleven months, russia has dropped nearly 44,000 guided aerial bombs, UA MOD, 2 Dec 2025.
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Jack Watling , Nikolay Staykov, Maya Kalcheva, Olena Yurchenko, Bohdan Kovalenko, Olena Zhul, Oleksii Borovikov, Anastasiia Opria, Roman Rabieiev, Nadiia Reminets and Alex Whitworth, Disrupting Russian Air Defence Production: Reclaiming the Sky, RUSI, 12 December 2025.
Justin Bronk, The Evolution of Russian and Chinese Air Power Threats, RUSI, 8 January 2026
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Ukraine’s Lima EW System Can Throw Russian Bombs With UMPK Kits Off-Course, Militarnyi, 8 April 2025.
Russia Develops New Guided Bomb That Can Evade Electronic Warfare and Strike 200 km Away, United 24 Media, 11 February 2026.
Russian glide bombs add pressure on Ukraine’s diminishing air defences, IISS, 25th March 2024.
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Timecodes
00:00 - Russo-Ukrainian War
00:16 - The Glidebomb Threat
01:47 - Combat Trends
03:30 - Effect on Battlefield Geometry
04:24 - Control of the Air
06:40 - So What? VKS Threat Picture
07:48 - So What for NATO
Audio and Thumbnail
Music and Sfx from Epidemic Sound
Thumbnail Assets used: Alex Beltyukov, Doomych, War Sanctions.gur.gov.ua
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