The U.S. and Israel’s War With Iran: Where Do We Go From Here?

Why It Matters

The conflict’s outcome will dictate global energy stability and test the United States’ ability to manage complex, multi‑theater wars without eroding strategic credibility.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. misjudged Iran's resilience after initial strikes in region
• Iran swiftly adapted, maintaining regime cohesion despite leadership decapitation
• Economic warfare escalated, threatening Hormuz and global oil flow
• Negotiations hint at frozen assets trade for limited nuclear concessions
• Decision‑making flaws exposed in both U.S. and Israeli war planning

Summary

The Carnegie Connects panel examined the rapidly evolving U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, now seven weeks old, and the looming diplomatic overtures that could reshape the war’s trajectory. Host Aaron Miller framed the discussion around the unexpected durability of Iran’s political and military apparatus despite a series of high‑profile strikes that targeted senior leaders and nuclear facilities.

Panelists highlighted three core insights. First, Washington entered the confrontation with a false sense of ease, assuming that recent successes in Israel and elsewhere would translate into swift regime change in Tehran. Second, Iran demonstrated remarkable operational agility, preserving internal cohesion, executing a near‑total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and leveraging economic pressure to force negotiations involving $20 billion in frozen assets. Third, the decision‑making structures in both the U.S. and Israel proved ill‑suited to the rapid risk assessment required for such a high‑stakes conflict.

Suzanne Maloney noted the regime’s “coherent and pointed” public messaging, while Danny Sutenovich emphasized how quickly Iran overcame the decapitation of long‑standing figure Ali Khamenei’s network. Both underscored that Iran’s preparedness for a prolonged confrontation was not accidental but the result of long‑term strategic planning.

The discussion suggests that any cease‑fire or settlement will hinge on economic concessions rather than military victory, with significant implications for global oil markets, regional security, and U.S. credibility in executing high‑risk foreign policy initiatives.

Original Description

Brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran have agreed to a fragile two-week ceasefire, dependent on an American condition that Iran agrees to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has also agreed to cease strikes on Iran, but its campaign in Lebanon continues. Can this agreement hold? After six weeks of conflict, why did the parties agree now?  What can we expect from the negotiations ahead, and what are the chances of a resumption of the war or a comprehensive agreement to end it?  

Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution Suzanne Maloney and the Institute for National Security Studies Danny Citrinowicz  in a broad ranging conversation on the Iran war and whether we will soon see meaningful negotiations or a return to conflict, on the next Carnegie Connects.