Venezuela After Maduro: What’s Next?

Why It Matters

Understanding the opposition’s fragmentation and U.S. policy choices is crucial for investors, policymakers, and regional actors as Venezuela’s political trajectory will directly affect oil markets, migration flows, and democratic stability in Latin America.

Key Takeaways

• Opposition leader Machalo shifted tactics, won 2024 vote.
• US backed Deli Rodriguez, sidelining Machalo unexpectedly in 2024.
• Opposition remains fragmented despite Machalo’s popularity surge throughout campaign.
• Democratization prospects hinge on moderate negotiations with Chavismo.
• Panel urges unified, pragmatic opposition strategy for Venezuela’s transition.

Summary

The Brown‑University panel titled “Venezuela after Maduro: What’s Next?” convened leading scholars and Venezuelan experts to assess the country’s political crossroads following the contested 2024 elections. Moderator Rich Snyder opened with questions for David Smiley, who highlighted the rise of opposition figure Ramario Cordina Machalo, whose shift from abstentionist tactics to an electoral strategy secured a symbolic victory, only to be undermined by a surprise U.S. endorsement of rival Deli Rodriguez.

Panelists dissected Machalo’s hard‑line rhetoric, her reliance on influencer networks, and the rapid decline of her poll numbers after initial enthusiasm waned. They noted that while Machalo mobilized public anger, her refusal to broaden her platform—particularly on sanctions and oil privatization—left a sizable segment of voters disengaged. The discussion also covered the broader fragmentation of the opposition, the role of U.S. policy in shaping elite alignments, and the historical pattern of Venezuelan crises that have persisted for two decades.

Quotes underscored the paradox of external support: “Trump spurned Machalo in favor of Rodriguez, a move that shocked both Venezuelan observers and opposition insiders,” noted Smiley. Another panelist warned that “democratic transitions are processes, not ruptures,” emphasizing the need for moderate figures within the authoritarian regime to engage in negotiations. The scholars collectively called for a unified opposition front capable of pragmatic compromise, rather than a singular, ideologically rigid leader.

The implications are clear: without a cohesive strategy, Venezuela risks continued stalemate, further humanitarian decline, and heightened geopolitical tension. A coordinated opposition that can negotiate with moderate Chavismo elements may open a pathway to credible elections, economic stabilization, and reduced U.S. intervention, reshaping the regional balance of power.

Original Description

About the Event

A panel of distinguished experts on Latin American politics, society, and history will discuss the implications of the recent US military intervention for Venezuela and also for the future of US-Latin American relations.

About the Panelists

Alejandro Velasco is Associate Professor of Latin American History at New York University, and was Executive Editor of the NACLA Report on the Americas from 2015 to 2021. He is the author of Barrio Rising: Urban Popular Politics and the Making of Modern Venezuela, and his research has received support from the SSRC, the AHA, the Ford Foundation, the Mellon Foundation, and others. A frequent media contributor, his editorials and analysis have appeared in NACLA, Nueva Sociedad, The Nation, the New York Times, the Guardian, the Washington Post, Current History, BBC History Magazine, and others. Velasco also frequently contributes radio and television commentary in outlets including NPR, MSNBC, Al Jazeera, NBC, CBS, France 24, the BBC, and the CBC.

Verónica Zubillaga is a Venezuelan sociologist. For the past twenty years, her ethnographic research has been focused on urban armed violence in Latin America, particularly in her hometown of Caracas. For the past decade, she has recorded human rights violations and promoted discussions about the search for justice vis-à-vis police violence in Venezuela. Her publications include the co-edited book: The Paradox of Violence in Venezuela (the University of Pittsburgh Press, 2022) with David Smilde and Rebecca Hanson. Her work has been disseminated in several academic journals, including Critical Criminology, Latin American Research Review LARR), Cahiers des Amériques Latines, Violence: An International Journal, Political Geography, Crime, Law and Social Change, and Revista Mexicana de Sociología. She has been a Visiting Professor at CLACS - Brown University, a Visiting Scholar at Harvard University, Notre Dame University, and a Tinker Visiting Professor at Columbia University. She is currently a Mellon Visiting Scholar at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

Ieva Jusionyte is the Watson Family University Professor of International Security and Anthropology and Director of the Center for Human Rights and Humanitarian Studies at Brown University. She is the author of several books, including Threshold: Emergency Responders on the US-Mexico Border (2018) and Exit Wounds: How America’s Guns Fuel Violence Across the Border (2024), which won the Juan E. Méndez Book Award for Human Rights in Latin America, PROSE Award for Excellence in Social Sciences from the Association of American Publishers, and Nonfiction Honors in the Massachusetts Book Awards. Her work has been supported by the National Science Foundation and fellowships from the Harvard Radcliffe Institute and the Fulbright Program, among others. In addition to academic publications, she has written for The Atlantic, the Los Angeles Times, The Boston Globe, and Rolling Stone. In 2025, Jusionyte was named a MacArthur Fellow.

David Smilde is the Charles A. and Leo M. Favrot Professor of Human Relations and Chair of the Sociology Department at Tulane University. At Tulane’s Center for Inter-American Policy and Research he leads the Venezuelan Conflict and Peacebuilding Research Group. He was Program Chair of the Latin American Studies Association’s 2023 Congress and served as Chair of the Venezuelan Studies Section of the Latin American Studies Association from 2010-12. He has researched Venezuela for over thirty years, living there for sixteen of those years. His research focuses on culture, violence, political conflict, peacemaking, and human rights. He is an author or editor of six books, and author thirty peer reviewed articles or chapters. He was editor of the journal Qualitative Sociology for eight years. In addition to his academic career he has done policy-work with the Washington Office on Latin America, the Atlantic Council, the Wilson Center for Scholars, the Open Society Foundations, the Ford Foundation and Luminate. He has published opinion articles in the New York Times, Washington Post, El Pais of Spain, and is a frequent media commentator on the crisis in Venezuela.