Will China Attempt to Invade Taiwan in the Next Ten Years?

Why It Matters

A potential Taiwan invasion would upend regional stability, disrupt global trade routes, and compel governments and businesses to recalibrate security and investment strategies.

Key Takeaways

• 70% experts predict China may use force on Taiwan
• Over 40% foresee a world war within ten years
• Taiwan crisis seen as most likely trigger for global conflict
• US shifts to explicit deterrence, announces record arms sales
• Japan ties Strait stability directly to its national security

Summary

The Atlantic Council’s Global Foresight Survey asks whether the People’s Republic of China will attempt a military takeover of Taiwan within the next decade. The poll finds that 70 % of security experts believe an invasion is likely, and more than 40 % anticipate a world war breaking out in the same period.

Respondents identify a Taiwan‑related crisis as the most probable trigger, with 43 % naming it the top flashpoint in the East and South China Seas. The findings reflect a shift from Washington’s long‑standing policy of strategic ambiguity toward a more explicit deterrence posture, highlighted by the new U.S. National Security Strategy and the announcement of the largest‑ever arms package for Taipei.

Regional leaders echo these concerns. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida publicly linked peace in the Taiwan Strait to Japan’s own security, while the Atlantic Council’s Tiger Project on Indo‑Pacific war deterrence offers deeper analysis of escalation risks.

If the survey’s outlook materializes, the Indo‑Pacific could become the epicenter of a broader conflict, reshaping global supply chains, prompting heightened defense spending, and forcing multinational corporations to reassess exposure to geopolitical risk.

Original Description

For the third straight year, our Global Foresight 2036 survey shows that China’s likelihood of invading Taiwan in the next ten years is growing.

And what starts in Taiwan wouldn’t necessarily end in Taiwan. More than 40 percent of respondents envision another world war erupting over the next decade. And within that group, 43 percent think the likely trigger will be in Taiwan or the East/South China Seas.

Audrey Roh of our Indo-Pacific Security Initiative shares some insights.

Read more in our Global Foresight Report: https://bit.ly/4uctbSW