Why It Matters
Understanding that startup frameworks are optional tools helps founders avoid costly blind‑spot adherence and investors to evaluate ventures on genuine differentiation rather than textbook compliance.
Key Takeaways
- •Startup frameworks are guidance, not guarantees.
- •Success often defies conventional metrics and advice.
- •Survivor bias skews perceived best practices.
- •Founders must tailor strategies to unique contexts.
- •Embrace experimentation; no single formula ensures growth.
Pulse Analysis
A compass tells you where north lies, but it does not guarantee that heading north will get you where you need to be. In the startup world, countless guides—Lean Startup, 37signals playbooks, growth hacks—serve as directional cues, not detailed roadmaps. This distinction matters because early‑stage companies operate in volatile environments where market signals shift daily, and a rigid adherence to any single doctrine can stifle the adaptive thinking required to survive unexpected turbulence.
Statistical analyses of startup outcomes often suffer from survivor bias: the visible successes are outliers that mask the far larger pool of failures that followed the same playbook. Lean Startup, for instance, popularized rapid iteration, yet both thriving and floundering firms have applied its principles with mixed results. The reality is that trends reveal probabilities, not certainties; they cannot predict which specific venture will break the mold. Consequently, founders should treat data‑driven frameworks as hypothesis generators rather than deterministic formulas.
The practical takeaway for entrepreneurs is to assemble a toolbox of proven tactics and then experiment rigorously within their unique context. Use frameworks to spark ideas, test assumptions, and gather feedback, but remain willing to discard or modify them when evidence suggests a different direction. Investors and advisors should likewise value a founder’s ability to navigate ambiguity over strict compliance with any methodology. By embracing iteration, questioning dogma, and focusing on real customer validation, startups can chart a personalized path to growth even without a universal map.
A compass is not a map
A compass tells you which way is north, not whether you should be heading north. So what is the map to startup success?
An entrepreneur confided in me recently that he didn’t like Lean Startup. He asked whether I thought that was OK, or whether he was not cut out to build a startup. “Elon didn’t use Lean Startup to build Tesla.” True, but you’re not manufacturing cars. Still, it’s also true that before Lean Startup most startups failed, and after Lean Startup most startups failed, so is it really necessary?
A founder uses “37signals does it” to justify every decision, even if he can’t explain why, or why it applies to his situation, or whether 37signals did that when they were still his size.
A startup pitch‑deck boasts about the mistakes they’ve made because of the lessons they’ve learned. But the lessons haven’t resulted in paying customers, so is there value in that experience? Is it time to hang up the towel, or does this knowledge and introspection position them for rocket‑ship growth?
A compass is not a map. A compass tells you which way is north, not whether you should be heading north.
There’s no map in startups despite even me saying there might be. There are examples, but for every startup that landed 300 customers from their TechCrunch launch article there’s another which got 0; for every startup that built loyalty on Twitter there’s one with 20 % month‑over‑month revenue growth that has yet to reserve their Twitter handle; for every startup ascribing their success to spectacular design, there’s another successful one who has never hired a designer (and it shows).
Indeed, for every piece of advice P, there are many successes and failures of startups who did P, and also many successes and failures of startups that did the opposite of P. The 2×2 diagram is full. So what does that tell us about P?
The trouble with “rules” in startups, besides the inherent survivor bias, is that by definition the successful ones are anomalies. Statistics show trends, but trends don’t predict outliers.
What does predict an outlier? Nothing. A successful startup looks a lot like an unsuccessful startup at the start. Statistics can’t be used to determine the outcome of the individual case (not just in startups, but anywhere).
Don’t confuse startup frameworks or dogma or the origin story of your favorite startup with laws. You have to find your own way, using all this startup advice for sparks of inspiration, for brainstorming, as a candy store where every item has its own merits but you must pick and choose what to put into your basket. Decide what makes you the best version of who you already are.
There’s no map. That’s OK. Keep moving.
© 2007‑2026 Jason Cohen
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