Prediction Market Kalshi Reached $1bn in Trading Volume During Super Bowl

Why It Matters

The milestone demonstrates mainstream acceptance of prediction markets as a high‑volume betting alternative, while spotlighting regulatory and integrity challenges that could shape the sector’s future.

Key Takeaways

• $1 bn volume, 2,700% YoY increase.
• $145 m bet on Bad Bunny halftime.
• No Super Bowl ad, yet top brand.
• CFTC oversees, not state gambling regulators.
• Surveillance expanded to curb manipulation, insider trading.

Pulse Analysis

Prediction markets have moved beyond niche finance circles into mainstream entertainment, and Kalshi’s $1 billion Super Bowl trading volume underscores that shift. By allowing users to trade outcomes—from halftime setlists to election results—the platform taps into real‑time public sentiment, generating liquidity that rivals traditional sportsbooks. The Super Bowl surge, driven largely by bets on Bad Bunny’s performance, illustrates how cultural events can become lucrative trading venues when frictionless, app‑based interfaces replace legacy betting channels.

Regulatory oversight remains a defining factor for the industry’s scalability. Unlike state‑licensed sportsbooks, Kalshi operates under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, positioning it as a financial‑product platform rather than a gambling service. This distinction attracts a different investor base but also invites scrutiny over market manipulation and insider trading. Kalshi’s recent expansion of surveillance tools and its public reporting of over 200 investigations signal a proactive stance to mitigate these risks and reassure both regulators and participants.

The broader market impact is evident as competitors like Polymarket and new entrants eye similar event‑driven spikes. High‑profile endorsements, such as NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming a shareholder, add credibility and draw attention from traditional finance and media investors. As prediction markets continue to integrate with major cultural moments—from the Grammys to the Oscars—they may reshape betting economics, offering fee‑based revenue models that align platform success with user wins. Stakeholders should monitor regulatory developments and the evolution of compliance frameworks, which will determine the sector’s long‑term viability.

Prediction market Kalshi reached $1bn in trading volume during Super Bowl

Kalshi says ‘incredible weekend’ after $145m in bets on Bad Bunny’s opening song and guests during half‑time show · By Anna Betts · Tue 10 Feb 2026 13:28 EST (last modified Tue 10 Feb 2026 13:31 EST)

Bad Bunny performs during the half‑time show at the Super Bowl at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday in Santa Clara, California. Photograph: Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Online prediction market Kalshi hit a daily record on the Super Bowl Sunday, surpassing $1 billion in trading volume, the company announced on Tuesday.

Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, called it an “incredible weekend”, telling CNBC that “Kalshi was the biggest brand of the Super Bowl this year, without running a Super Bowl ad”.

Kalshi’s trading volume during the game was up 2,700 % year‑over‑year. More than $100 million were bets on Bad Bunny’s opening song and $45 million on which artists would perform with him on stage. In comparison, the platform saw $27 million in total trading volume at last year’s Super Bowl.

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to trade on the outcomes of virtually anything, from sports and elections to what colour someone will wear during a performance. Unlike casinos or traditional sportsbooks, users effectively bet (or “trade”) against others on the platform, instead of an established “house”, and the platforms earn revenue by charging trading fees.

Kalshi and competitor Polymarket argue that this model distinguishes them from traditional casinos or sportsbooks. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal ban on sports betting in 2018, state gambling agencies regulate traditional gambling outfits, but prediction markets are currently overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“The reason people are flocking to prediction markets, especially Kalshi, is that our incentive as a company [is] we win when the customers win, we don’t win when the customers lose, and that’s a huge difference in the model,” Mansour said on Tuesday.

On Sunday, Kalshi told users that although some deposits were “delayed because of the amount of traffic and deposits we’re getting”, their money “is safe and on the way, it will just take longer to land”.

Prediction markets have risen in popularity in recent months and are now used beyond sports, edging into other events such as the Grammys and Oscars. Last week, Kalshi announced that NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo was joining the company as a shareholder.

But in recent months, critics have raised concerns about potential market manipulation and insider trading on these prediction‑market sites. Ahead of the Super Bowl, Kalshi said it expanded its surveillance and enforcement efforts to detect and remove accounts engaging in insider trading or market manipulation.

In a post on X days before the Super Bowl, Mansour said the company over the past year “ran over 200 investigations and froze relevant accounts” and referred several active cases to law enforcement.