The Product Experience (Mind the Product)
How to Use Premortems to Predict Failure - Anu Jagga-Narang (AT&T)
The Product Experience (Mind the Product)
•January 28, 2026•34 min
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The Product Experience (Mind the Product)•Jan 28, 2026
Why It Matters
Premortems empower teams to anticipate failure before costly launches, reducing waste and increasing market success. As AI accelerates product complexity, the disciplined, human‑centric risk assessment Anu describes becomes essential for maintaining control and delivering reliable innovations.
Key Takeaways
- •Premortems identify hidden risks before product launch.
- •Use prospective hindsight to combat optimism bias.
- •Classify risks as tigers, paper tigers, elephants.
- •Anonymous tools like Idea Boards boost psychological safety.
- •Assign owners and actions after voting to mitigate failures.
Pulse Analysis
Premortems, a decision‑quality tool created by cognitive psychologist Gary Klein, let product teams imagine a launch that has already failed and work backwards to uncover hidden risks. By employing prospective hindsight, they counteract optimism bias and overconfidence, which are especially dangerous in fast‑moving AI product development. This technique creates psychological safety, encouraging candid discussion of assumptions, dependencies, and potential failure points before resources are committed.
A typical premortem starts with a kickoff where objectives, problem statements, and strategy are clarified. Teams then brainstorm failure scenarios, documenting them descriptively on sticky notes or digital boards such as Idea Boards, Coda, or Productboard. Risks are categorized as tigers (critical threats), paper tigers (perceived but controlled risks), or elephants (obvious yet unaddressed issues). Anonymous voting limits bias, with each participant allocating a single vote to tigers, two to paper tigers, and two to elephants, surfacing the most pressing concerns for further action.
After voting, owners are assigned, timelines set, and mitigation plans drafted, turning abstract fears into concrete tasks. Running premortems before major launches—or when projects veer off‑track—helps teams align, prioritize, and avoid costly rework. The process also scales to success scenarios, revealing hidden scaling risks and organizational readiness gaps. Companies that embed premortems into their product strategy see higher launch confidence, reduced post‑launch firefighting, and a culture that values proactive risk management.
Episode Description
In this episode, Lily Smith and Randy Silver host Anu Jagga‑Narang, a product evangelist at AT&T, to explore premortems — a powerful technique for anticipating product failure before launch. Anu explains how premortems use prospective hindsight to uncover risks early, surface assumptions teams are reluctant to voice, and improve decision quality.
The conversation covers practical steps for running premortems, risk classification using tigers, paper tigers and elephants, common pitfalls, and when to revisit the exercise as products evolve. They also examine how emerging AI capabilities influence product risk management — increasing the need for thoughtful planning rather than replacing human insight. This discussion offers product leaders a framework to strengthen strategic thinking, foster psychological safety and equip teams to build with confidence and clarity.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Premortems
01:39 Guest Introduction — Anu Jagga‑Narang
02:14 Career Journey into Product
05:03 What Is a Premortem?
07:04 Framing Failure and Success in Premortems
11:02 How to Conduct a Premortem
15:04 Voting and Risk Classification
17:00 Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants
20:22 Assigning Ownership and Actions
21:28 When to Run a Premortem
23:40 Who Should Participate and Duration
25:14 Examples and Surprising Insights
28:43 Common Mistakes and Anti‑patterns
31:51 AI’s Impact on Premortems
34:13 Closing Remarks and Credits
Our Hosts
Lily Smith enjoys working as a consultant product manager with early-stage and growing startups and as a mentor to other product managers. She’s currently Chief Product Officer at BBC Maestro, and has spent 13 years in the tech industry working with startups in the SaaS and mobile space. She’s worked on a diverse range of products – leading the product teams through discovery, prototyping, testing and delivery. Lily also founded ProductTank Bristol and runs ProductCamp in Bristol and Bath.
Randy Silver is a Leadership & Product Coach and Consultant. He gets teams unstuck, helping you to supercharge your results. Randy's held interim CPO and Leadership roles at scale-ups and SMEs, advised start-ups, and been Head of Product at HSBC and Sainsbury’s. He participated in Silicon Valley Product Group’s Coaching the Coaches forum, and speaks frequently at conferences and events. You can join one of communities he runs for CPOs (CPO Circles), Product Managers (Product In the {A}ether) and Product Coaches. He’s the author of What Do We Do Now? A Product Manager’s Guide to Strategy in the Time of COVID-19. A recovering music journalist and editor, Randy also launched Amazon’s music stores in the US & UK.
Show Notes
In this episode, Lily Smith and Randy Silver host Anu Jagga‑Narang, a product evangelist at AT&T, to explore premortems — a powerful technique for anticipating product failure before launch. Anu explains how premortems use prospective hindsight to uncover risks early, surface assumptions teams are reluctant to voice, and improve decision quality.
The conversation covers practical steps for running premortems, risk classification using tigers, paper tigers and elephants, common pitfalls, and when to revisit the exercise as products evolve. They also examine how emerging AI capabilities influence product risk management — increasing the need for thoughtful planning rather than replacing human insight. This discussion offers product leaders a framework to strengthen strategic thinking, foster psychological safety and equip teams to build with confidence and clarity.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Premortems
01:39 Guest Introduction — Anu Jagga‑Narang
02:14 Career Journey into Product
05:03 What Is a Premortem?
07:04 Framing Failure and Success in Premortems
11:02 How to Conduct a Premortem
15:04 Voting and Risk Classification
17:00 Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants
20:22 Assigning Ownership and Actions
21:28 When to Run a Premortem
23:40 Who Should Participate and Duration
25:14 Examples and Surprising Insights
28:43 Common Mistakes and Anti‑patterns
31:51 AI’s Impact on Premortems
34:13 Closing Remarks and Credits
**Our Hosts
Lily Smith** enjoys working as a consultant product manager with early-stage and growing startups and as a mentor to other product managers. She’s currently Chief Product Officer at BBC Maestro, and has spent 13 years in the tech industry working with startups in the SaaS and mobile space. She’s worked on a diverse range of products – leading the product teams through discovery, prototyping, testing and delivery. Lily also founded ProductTank Bristol and runs ProductCamp in Bristol and Bath.
Randy Silver is a Leadership & Product Coach and Consultant. He gets teams unstuck, helping you to supercharge your results. Randy's held interim CPO and Leadership roles at scale-ups and SMEs, advised start-ups, and been Head of Product at HSBC and Sainsbury’s. He participated in Silicon Valley Product Group’s Coaching the Coaches forum, and speaks frequently at conferences and events. You can join one of communities he runs for CPOs (CPO Circles), Product Managers (Product In the {A}ether) and Product Coaches. He’s the author of What Do We Do Now? A Product Manager’s Guide to Strategy in the Time of COVID-19. A recovering music journalist and editor, Randy also launched Amazon’s music stores in the US & UK.
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