Coca-Cola Forecasts Modest Growth Amid Demand Concerns

Why It Matters

The forecast signals that Coca‑Cola’s growth will rely increasingly on premium, non‑carbonated drinks, reshaping its revenue mix amid price‑sensitive consumer behavior. This shift has direct implications for investors and competitors navigating a soft‑drink market under fiscal pressure.

Key Takeaways

• 2026 organic revenue growth forecast: 4%‑5%
• Earnings per share expected to rise 7%‑8%
• Water, sports, coffee, tea segment outpaces core soda
• North America and Latin America volumes show modest improvement
• Premium brands like Smartwater drive higher consumer spending

Pulse Analysis

The soft‑drink industry faces a tightening consumer purse as inflation and grocery price hikes push shoppers toward value options. Coca‑Cola’s latest guidance reflects this macro backdrop, with modest organic revenue growth and earnings expectations that signal a cautious but steady trajectory. While overall volume remains flat, the company’s ability to exceed analyst forecasts on earnings per share demonstrates operational resilience, yet the 3% share dip underscores market nerves about sustained demand.

Coca‑Cola’s strategic emphasis on its water, sports, coffee and tea portfolio is paying dividends, as that segment posted a 3% volume increase, driven by premium offerings like Smartwater and Bodyarmor. This diversification away from traditional carbonated sodas aligns with broader consumer trends favoring perceived healthier choices and willingness to pay a premium for functional beverages. The modest 1% rise in North American volume and 2% gain in Latin America further illustrate that targeted product innovation can offset broader market softness.

Looking ahead, the company’s 2026 outlook hinges on expanding its high‑margin, non‑carbonated lines while managing cost pressures. Investors will watch how Coca‑Cola balances price adjustments with promotional activity to retain price‑sensitive shoppers. Competitive dynamics with PepsiCo, which faces similar demand headwinds, will likely intensify as both firms chase growth in premium categories. The modest guidance, coupled with a solid earnings beat, suggests Coca‑Cola is positioning itself for incremental growth rather than aggressive expansion, a strategy that may prove prudent in an uncertain economic environment.

Coca-Cola forecasts modest growth amid demand concerns

By Amelia Lucas · Published Tue, Feb 10 2026 6:35 AM EST

Key Points

• Coca‑Cola is projecting 2026 organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%.

• Like rival PepsiCo, Coke has seen demand for its drinks fall as budget‑conscious shoppers try to save more on their grocery bills.

• Coke’s water, sports, coffee and tea division outperformed the rest of its portfolio.

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Coca‑Cola reported mixed quarterly results, although demand for its drinks in North America and Latin America is beginning to show signs of improvement.

Looking ahead to 2026, the company is projecting organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% and comparable earnings per share growth of 7% to 8% for the full year.

Shares of Coca‑Cola fell roughly 3% in pre‑market trading.

Quarterly results (period ended Dec. 31)

• Adjusted earnings per share: 58 cents vs. 56 cents expected

• Adjusted revenue: $11.82 billion vs. $12.03 billion expected

The beverage giant reported fourth‑quarter net income attributable to shareholders of $2.27 billion, or 53 cents per share, up from $2.2 billion, or 51 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding transaction gains and other one‑time items, Coke earned 58 cents per share.

Net sales rose 2% to $11.82 billion. Organic revenue, which strips out acquisitions, divestitures and currency effects, increased 5% in the quarter.

Unit case volume rose 1% in the quarter, marking the second straight quarter of growth for the company. The metric excludes the impact of pricing and foreign currency to reflect demand.

Like rival PepsiCo, Coke has seen demand for its drinks fall as budget‑conscious shoppers try to save more on their grocery bills and dine out less frequently. Coke’s overall volume for 2025 was unchanged from the prior year.

There have been some bright spots, however. Brands such as Smartwater and Fairlife showed that consumers are still willing to pay more for premium drinks.

Two key markets for Coke are starting to show signs of improvement: volume in North America increased 1%, while it rose 2% in Latin America.

Worldwide, Coke’s water, sports, coffee and tea division outperformed the rest of its portfolio, signaling consumers’ willingness to spend on drinks they perceive as healthier options. The segment saw volume grow 3%, driven by higher demand for brands like Smartwater and Bodyarmor.

The company’s sparkling soft‑drinks business reported flat volume. Its namesake soda saw volume rise 1% in the quarter, while Coke Zero Sugar reported a 13% volume increase.

Coke’s juice, value‑added dairy and plant‑based beverages division reported a 3% volume decline. Higher demand for Fairlife was offset by the sale of Coke’s finished‑product operations in Nigeria to one of its bottlers.

Shares of Coca‑Cola have risen roughly 22% over the last year as of Monday’s close, raising its market value to about $335 billion.