Michael Atingi-Ego: Beyond the Drill - Cultivating a Legacy of Empowered Nationals and Enterprises in Uganda's Oil Age

Why It Matters

Effective oil‑revenue management will determine whether Uganda’s resource boom translates into sustained, diversified growth or reinforces a volatile, single‑commodity economy, impacting investors, policymakers, and the broader East African market.

Key Takeaways

• Tenfold Growth Strategy aims $50B to $500B by 2040
• PRIR safeguards oil proceeds for future generations
• National content policy pushes Ugandan firms toward capability building
• Oil-backed financing to boost agro‑industrial, tourism, mineral sectors
• Bank of Uganda commits to flexible exchange rate, inflation targeting

Pulse Analysis

Uganda’s recent oil discoveries have sparked optimism, but the country is acutely aware of the "resource curse" that has derailed many emerging economies. By embedding oil within the Tenfold Growth Strategy, policymakers aim to use petroleum revenues as a springboard for four pillars—science and technology, mineral‑based industrialisation, tourism and agro‑industrialisation. This integrated approach seeks to create cross‑sectoral linkages, turning crude into infrastructure, energy, and logistics that benefit agriculture, manufacturing, and services long after the wells run dry.

At the heart of this vision lies the Bank of Uganda, which is positioning monetary policy as a shield against the inflationary and exchange‑rate pressures that oil inflows can generate. A 5 % medium‑term core inflation target, a flexible shilling regime, and a proactive stance on interest‑rate adjustments are designed to keep the economy competitive and protect household purchasing power. The Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve (PRIR) functions as a sovereign‑wealth fund, earmarking a portion of oil proceeds for high‑impact, non‑oil investments such as renewable energy, transport corridors, and digital infrastructure, thereby ensuring inter‑generational equity.

The speech also underscored a shift from mere compliance to genuine capability development under the National Local Content Policy. By offering tailored credit facilities, risk‑sharing guarantees, and blended‑finance structures, the financial sector is being mobilised to fund Ugandan firms across the oil‑linked value chain. This financing will accelerate agro‑industrial processing, boost high‑end tourism circuits, and catalyse mineral‑based manufacturing, while fostering a vibrant science‑technology ecosystem. Together, these measures aim to transform Uganda’s oil age into a lasting legacy of empowered nationals and diversified enterprises.

Michael Atingi-Ego: Beyond the drill - cultivating a legacy of empowered nationals and enterprises in Uganda's oil age

Keynote address by Mr Michael Atingi‑Ego, Governor of the Bank of Uganda, at the 6th Annual National Content Conference, Kampala, 3 December 2025 · The views expressed in this speech are those of the speaker and not the view of the BIS.

Honourable ministers, permanent secretaries, leaders of industry, distinguished participants, and fellow Ugandans, good morning to you all.

We stand at a defining moment in Uganda’s economic history. The theme of this conference—“Beyond the Drill: Cultivating a Legacy of Empowered Nationals and Enterprises in Uganda’s Oil Age”—is not just a title. It is a call to action. It challenges us to look beyond the immediate gains of extraction and to commit to a future where oil becomes a catalyst for inclusive, sustainable, and diversified growth.

1.0 The Paradox of Plenty: Turning Resource Wealth into National Wealth

History teaches us that natural resource wealth is neither a blessing nor a curse by default. The difference lies in governance, institutions, and foresight. Uganda stands at this crossroads today.

Our Tenfold Growth Strategy—to expand the economy from $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040—is anchored in four transformative pillars, known as ATMS:

• Science, Technology, and Innovation

• Mineral‑based Industrial Development (including Oil and Gas)

• Tourism

• Agro‑industrialisation

These pillars are not siloed initiatives; they are interconnected engines designed to drive inclusive, sustainable, and diversified growth. Oil and gas is not an isolated project; it is the engine that must power this transformation.

Yet, as economists like Paul Collier and Joseph Stiglitz have emphasised, the real test is not in extracting resources but in converting them into productive assets. The $11 billion already invested in Uganda’s petroleum sector is not just capital; it is the foundation for roads, industrial parks, and logistics hubs that will serve our economy long after the oil is gone.

But let us be clear: barrels do not build nations. The true measure of success will be whether this oil age leaves behind empowered Ugandan firms, skilled workers, and resilient communities—or merely infrastructure without inclusion.

2.0 The Role of the Bank of Uganda: Guardian of Stability and Steward of Posterity

The Bank of Uganda’s mandate—“to promote price stability and a sound financial system in support of socio‑economic transformation”—is not a passive responsibility. It is the cornerstone upon which Uganda’s economic transformation must be built.

Price stability is the foundation of confidence, investment, and long‑term planning. Our unwavering commitment to achieving the inflation target—average annual core inflation of 5 % within the medium term (two to three years ahead)—is more than a technical objective.

It is a pledge to every Ugandan that their savings, wages, and investments will retain their value, and that our economy will remain resilient in the face of external and domestic shocks.

Should oil revenues exert strong appreciation pressures on the nominal shilling exchange rate, the Bank of Uganda will act decisively to ensure that inflation remains lower than the average of our trading partners. This will preserve Uganda’s competitiveness in real terms.

Together with the implementation of the ATMS, these measures will safeguard the economy against the potential “Dutch Disease” effects of oil revenues, ensuring that resource wealth translates into sustainable growth rather than instability.

Our task is clear: to ensure that Uganda’s oil and gas sector becomes a springboard for prosperity, not a detour from it. The Bank of Uganda’s role in this journey is twofold: to preserve macro‑economic stability and to steward the Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve (PRIR) for future generations.

2.1 Macroeconomic Stability: The Invisible Hand of Progress

A stable shilling, low inflation, and a resilient financial system are not abstract goals. They are the preconditions for every contract signed, every loan extended, and every enterprise launched. Our medium‑term inflation target of 5 % is not arbitrary. It is the sweet spot—low enough to protect the purchasing power of households and businesses, yet flexible enough to accommodate the dynamics of a growing economy.

When we raised interest rates by 350 basis points to combat inflationary pressures from external shocks, we sent a clear signal: Uganda will not sacrifice stability for short‑term gains. Our inflation‑targeting framework, flexible exchange rate, and prudent reserve management are not just technical tools. They are the shock absorbers that will prevent oil revenues from destabilising our economy.

2.2 The Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve: Saving Today for Tomorrow

The PRIR is not a savings account. It is a covenant with the future. The Public Finance Management Act ensures that oil revenues are not squandered but invested wisely—balancing today’s needs with tomorrow’s obligations. This is not just fiscal prudence; it is inter‑generational equity.

Sovereign wealth funds must be managed with discipline and transparency. The PRIR will be no different. Its investments will be guided by one principle: to turn temporary wealth into permanent assets.

3.0 National Content: From Compliance to Capability

National content is not a box‑ticking exercise. It is the strategic heart of our oil and gas strategy. The National Local Content Policy is clear: Ugandan citizens and enterprises must be at the forefront of this sector.

But let us move beyond rhetoric. Three shifts are essential:

1. From Short‑Term Spending to Long‑Term Assets – Oil revenues must finance human capital, infrastructure, and institutions—assets that will endure long after the oil is gone.

2. From Enclave Projects to Integrated Corridors – Oil infrastructure must be planned as part of regional development corridors, crowding in agriculture, manufacturing, and services. The Kabalega Industrial Park is a model: a hub for oil and for broader industrialisation.

3. From Participation in Contracts to Participation in Capabilities – Ugandan firms must not just win contracts; they must upgrade their technology, management, and standards to compete globally. Every local‑content provision must be a stepping stone to higher value addition.

This is how we turn finite resources into infinite possibilities.

4.0 The Role of Oil and Gas in Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy—our bold ambition to expand the economy from $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040—is not just a vision; it is a deliberate, actionable roadmap. It is anchored on the four ATMS pillars: Agro‑industrialisation, Tourism, Mineral‑based Industrial Development (including Oil and Gas), and Science, Technology, and Innovation.

1. Oil and Gas as a Catalyst for Non‑Oil Growth

The discovery of commercial oil reserves is not an end in itself. It is a powerful catalyst—a finite resource that must be harnessed to fuel infinite opportunities. Our oil and gas sector is uniquely positioned to:

• Accelerate infrastructure development, including energy, transport, and digital connectivity, which are critical enablers for all sectors.

• Stimulate backward and forward linkages across the economy, from agro‑industrialisation to tourism, manufacturing, and technology.

• Generate revenues that will be reinvested in the ATMS pillars, ensuring that the benefits of oil outlast the production phase.

The Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve (PRIR), managed by the Bank of Uganda, is a strategic instrument designed to allocate investments—particularly in foreign‑currency reserves and high‑impact, non‑oil sectors such as agriculture, tourism, minerals, and technology—to prioritise socio‑economic returns.

2. Agro‑Industrialisation: From Raw Materials to High‑Value Products – Powered by Oil and Gas

Uganda’s agriculture sector employs over 70 % of the population but contributes only 24 % of GDP (UBOS, 2023)—a clear signal of untapped potential. The Tenfold Growth Strategy prioritises value addition, and the oil and gas sector can play a pivotal role by providing the infrastructure, energy, and financing needed to transform raw commodities into high‑value products.

How Oil and Gas Will Drive Agro‑Industrial Growth

• Oil and its by‑products are critical inputs for agro‑industrialisation, serving as hydrogen sources for ammonia‑based fertilisers and feedstocks for petrochemical processes.

• The Kabalega Industrial Park will integrate oil refining with diverse manufacturing, including logistics and warehousing, agro‑processing units near Kabalega International Airport, and petrochemical and fertiliser plants.

• The Hoima Refinery’s by‑products (e.g., plastics for packaging, fertilisers for farms) will further reduce input costs for farmers and processors.

The Bank of Uganda will encourage financing of these value chains through blended finance, risk‑sharing schemes, and the Agricultural Credit Facility to ensure that smallholder farmers and agro‑processors can access the capital they need to thrive.

3. Tourism: Beyond Safaris to High‑End Experiences – Fuelled by Oil and Gas

Tourism is Uganda’s second‑largest foreign‑exchange earner, contributing $1.6 billion annually, yet we capture only a fraction of its potential. The oil and gas sector is expected to supercharge tourism by funding infrastructure, creating new attractions, and positioning Uganda as a global leader in sustainable resource management.

How Oil and Gas Will Transform Tourism

• Albertine Graben Oil and Gas Tourism Circuit – a new product showcasing Uganda’s journey to commercial oil production, featuring luxury lodges and conference facilities in Hoima and Buliisa, cultural experiences in oil‑host communities, and eco‑friendly oil operations.

• Projected to attract 50 000+ high‑spending tourists annually, adding $100 million in revenue by 2030 (Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife and Antiquities, 2023).

The Bank of Uganda will support this growth by encouraging affordable financing for tourism enterprises, promoting digital payments, and ensuring the financial sector can handle the influx of international visitors.

4. Mineral‑Based Industrialisation: From Extraction to Innovation – Anchored by Oil and Gas

Uganda is endowed with gold, copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare‑earth minerals—critical for the global green‑energy transition. The oil and gas sector will accelerate mineral‑based industrialisation by providing energy, infrastructure, and financing needed to turn raw minerals into high‑value products.

How Oil and Gas Will Drive Mineral Development

• Petrochemical industry: Hoima Refinery will produce plastics, fertilisers, and synthetic materials feeding agro‑industrialisation and manufacturing.

• Regional hub for battery minerals: Kabalega Industrial Park could host processing plants, adding $1 billion to annual mineral earnings (Uganda Chamber of Mines, 2023).

• Sukulu Phosphate and Iron Ore Project: could reduce reliance on imported fertilisers and steel, saving $380 million annually (MEMD, 2023).

• Energy for sustainable tourism: LPG from the refinery could replace charcoal in hotels, reducing deforestation by 30 % (NEMA, 2023).

The Bank of Uganda is working with the Uganda Bankers Association, development partners, the Uganda Development Bank, and private‑sector partners to de‑risk investments in mineral processing, ensuring Ugandan enterprises lead this transformation.

5. Science, Technology, and Innovation: The Future of Uganda’s Economy – Catalysed by Oil and Gas

The fourth pillar—Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI)—is the great equaliser, and the oil and gas sector will accelerate its impact by providing funding, energy, and infrastructure needed for a knowledge economy.

How Oil and Gas Can Power STI Growth

• Leverage Uganda’s young, tech‑savvy population to create a digital workforce, with oil‑backed financing for coding bootcamps, tech incubators, and green‑energy startups.

• Support a knowledge economy, including pharmaceuticals (using refinery by‑products for drug manufacturing), biotechnology, and creative industries (film, music, fashion), with oil revenues funding STI hubs such as a Kabalega Innovation Park.

• Drive productivity gains across sectors, from precision agriculture (oil‑funded irrigation and agro‑tech) to digital tourism (refinery‑backed LPG for eco‑lodges) and advanced manufacturing (petrochemical inputs).

The Bank of Uganda is championing financial inclusion for tech startups, promoting digital banking, and ensuring our ESG framework supports green and innovative enterprises, from e‑mobility to agro‑tech.

5.0 The Financial Sector: Financing Growth While Ensuring Sustainability

The financial sector’s role is dual: to finance the oil and gas sector while ensuring it does so sustainably.

5.1 Access to Finance: Unlocking Opportunities for Local Enterprises

Local enterprises face a financing gap. The Bank of Uganda and the Government, working with supervised financial institutions, are addressing this through:

• Tailored credit facilities for oil‑linked value chains.

• Risk‑sharing mechanisms and guarantees for SMEs entering the oil‑related supply chain.

• Promotion of blended‑finance structures that combine public, private, and development‑partner capital.

These measures aim to bridge the financing gap, enabling Ugandan firms to move from contract participation to capability development, thereby embedding local content throughout the oil and gas value chain.

---

End of speech.