Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Our Calculation of Intrinsic Value

Summary

In this episode the hosts walk through a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation of Tesla, Inc., outlining their assumptions—a 10% discount rate, 3% terminal growth, and projected free cash flows rising from $6.5 B in 2025 to $10.5 B in 2029. The model yields an enterprise value of $127.4 B, a net cash position of $29.4 B, and an intrinsic share price of roughly $42, far below Tesla’s market price near $411. The discussion highlights Tesla’s strategic assets—vertical integration, battery tech, AI and autonomy, and energy solutions—while noting that the current market premium reflects speculative bets on future autonomy and AI platform monetization rather than present cash‑flow fundamentals.