Exchanges at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Exchanges at Goldman Sachs
•January 13, 2026•24 min
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Exchanges at Goldman Sachs•Jan 13, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding these macro trends is crucial for investors, policymakers, and business leaders as they navigate a landscape of slower growth, tighter financing conditions, and rapid technological change. The episode provides a timely, data‑driven outlook that can inform strategic asset allocation and risk management decisions heading into the mid‑2020s.
Key Takeaways
- •Global growth forecast 2026 above consensus, driven by fiscal support.
- •US unemployment steady at 4.5% despite strong productivity gains.
- •China’s current‑account surplus projected to hit 1% of global GDP.
- •Dollar weakness expected to continue, but with shallower gradient.
- •AI’s impact on productivity and GDP remains limited in 2025.
Pulse Analysis
Goldman Sachs Exchanges opens 2026 with a surprisingly upbeat macro view. Jan Hatsias points to fiscal tailwinds—U.S. tax cuts, German spending, and the end of tariff pressures—combined with expected further rate cuts to lift global GDP to around 2.7 percent, outpacing most forecasts. The United States should sustain 2.5 percent growth, while Europe’s euro‑area is nudged to 1.3 percent thanks to German defense orders and Spanish resilience. Meanwhile, China’s export‑driven surge is set to generate a historic current‑account surplus, offsetting domestic housing weakness and adding a new external imbalance for trade partners.
The episode highlights a paradox: solid output growth coexists with stagnant labor markets. U.S. unemployment hovers near 4.5 percent as productivity accelerates to roughly 2 percent, a level poised to rise as artificial‑intelligence tools mature. Yet AI investment has yet to register measurable GDP gains, partly due to import‑heavy spending and accounting quirks around semiconductors. Inflation is on a disinflationary path, with wage pressures easing and rent costs receding, allowing the Fed and the Bank of England to contemplate additional rate cuts in 2026 while Japan modestly tightens policy.
For investors, the macro backdrop suggests low‑double‑digit equity returns in the United States and comparable global performance, but high valuations and potential AI‑related volatility temper enthusiasm. Credit spreads remain tight, limiting upside versus equities, and a sudden labor‑market deterioration could trigger a recession signal, prompting rapid market re‑pricing. Currency markets may see modest dollar weakness as the Fed eases faster than peers, but the gradient will be shallower than in 2025. Balancing exposure to growth‑driven assets while monitoring labor‑market and AI risks will be key to navigating 2026’s risk‑asset landscape.
Episode Description
In the first episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson discuss the trends shaping the global economy and markets in the coming year.
This episode was recorded on January 8th, 2026.
The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.
A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.
Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
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