Data Update 4 for 2026: A Tumultuous Year (2025) for Global Markets!

Original Description

In 2025, the global backlash that has already upended politics in much of the world came for markets, and in this session, I start with a look at global equity market performance in 2025, before moving on to create a snapshot of country risk at the start of 2026. After a brief discussion of the factors that cause country risk to vary across countries, I look at country risk measures of default risk (sovereign ratings and sovereign CDS spreads) before moving into "my" assessment of equity risk premiums, by country. I close with an analysis of what currencies bring into an analysis, and why if you are consistent, they should not matter in assessing value at a point in time.

Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/DataUpdate4for 2026.pdf

Blog Post:

Spreadsheet containing country risk measures: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctrypremium.xlsx