Spotlight: Alderman & Company

Why It Matters

The surge in capital, record‑high valuations, and rapid cost reductions are reshaping the space ecosystem, creating lucrative exit opportunities for mid‑market players and demanding new valuation frameworks for investors.

Key Takeaways

• Q1 2026 saw $1.6 trillion global M&A, record for aerospace.
• Space index up 52% YTD, outpacing S&P 500’s 11%.
• Launch cost fell from $54k/kg (1981) to $1.5k/kg (Falcon 9).
• $36 billion invested in space sector during Q1 2026.
• Public space firms trade on revenue multiples, some exceeding 300×.

Summary

The interview with Ryan Kirby of Alderman & Company highlighted the robust health of the space market, underscored by a record‑setting $1.6 trillion global M&A volume in Q1 2026 and a surge of nearly 200 aerospace and defense deals. Kirby also noted the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which could command a near‑$2 trillion valuation, signaling strong investor appetite.

Key metrics reinforce the bullish outlook: the space index rose 52% year‑to‑date versus the S&P 500’s 11% gain, launch frequency is projected to increase 37% from 2024 to 2025 with the United States accounting for roughly 82% of activity, and launch costs have collapsed from $54,000 per kilogram in 1981 to about $1,500 per kilogram on a Falcon 9. Q1 2026 also saw $36 billion poured into space ventures, marking the strongest investment quarter on record.

Kirby explained that valuation models in the sector rely heavily on revenue multiples rather than EBITDA, citing examples such as Rocket Lab’s >50× revenue multiple, Redwire at 8×, and AST SpaceMobile at an eye‑popping 371×. He described a “financeability methodology” that guides both small‑business acquisitions and large public‑company accretion analyses, noting Rocket Lab’s four acquisitions this year to vertically integrate its supply chain.

The implications are clear: abundant capital and soaring valuations are driving consolidation, especially among tier‑2 and tier‑3 suppliers who can leverage agility and margin opportunities. Middle‑market firms stand to benefit from strategic partnerships or exits, while investors must focus on revenue‑based metrics to navigate an increasingly competitive and high‑priced landscape.

Original Description

Aviation Week talks to Alderman & Company about space company valuations and the strength of the current space market.

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