Reliance Share Price Target Hiked to Rs 1,910: Why Goldman, CLSA, and Morgan Stanley Are Betting Big

Why It Matters

Higher targets and the looming Jio IPO signal renewed investor confidence in Reliance’s diversified growth engine, potentially lifting Indian market sentiment and attracting foreign capital.

Key Takeaways

• Goldman raises target to Rs 1,910 (~$23), highest among brokers
• Jio IPO filing expected May, seen as major catalyst
• CLSA, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan keep targets around $21‑22
• Refining margins set to improve via Russian/Venezuela crude access
• Retail sales up 14% YoY, quick‑commerce up 29% QoQ

Pulse Analysis

Reliance Industries, India’s most valuable listed firm, has rebounded into analyst focus after a bruising fourth‑quarter that saw its oil‑to‑chemicals segment hit by West Asia supply shocks. The stock slipped 13% on the back of higher crude premiums and logistics costs, yet global banks such as Goldman Sachs, CLSA, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are now betting on a turnaround. Their upgraded price targets—Goldman’s Rs 1,910 (≈$23) being the most aggressive—reflect confidence that the worst of the O2C (oil‑to‑chemical) squeeze is behind the curve and that integrated downstream assets will capture tighter feedstock markets.

Goldman’s revised target stems from a detailed sum‑of‑the‑parts (SOTP) model that values refining at 8.0× FY27 EV/EBITDA, offline retail at 33× Dec 2027 EV/EBITDA, and the high‑growth TMT arm via a discounted cash‑flow at a 10.5% WACC. The firm highlights access to Russian and Venezuelan crude as a margin tailwind, while naphtha cracking spreads have begun recovering. Meanwhile, the anticipated Jio Platforms IPO—potentially filed as early as May—adds a catalyst that could unlock a premium valuation for the telecom and digital ecosystem, reinforcing Reliance’s low‑risk capex strategy.

For the broader market, these bullish revisions could revive foreign institutional interest in Indian equities, especially as Reliance’s retail and quick‑commerce segments post 14% YoY and 29% QoQ growth respectively. The convergence of stronger commodity margins, expanding consumer businesses, and a high‑profile Jio listing positions Reliance as a bellwether for India’s growth narrative. Investors should monitor crude sourcing dynamics, regulatory approvals for the Jio IPO, and any lingering FII sentiment shifts, which together will shape the stock’s trajectory over the next 12 months.