Public Data Briefing: 2026 Proposed Amendments on Sentencing Options

Why It Matters

Expanding Zones B and C could reduce incarceration rates and recidivism, reshaping federal sentencing policy and lowering correctional costs.

Key Takeaways

• Commission proposes expanding Zones B and C sentencing options.
• Expanded zones would affect roughly 11,300 eligible defendants.
• Recidivism rates lower for non‑incarceration sentences versus prison.
• Majority of moved defendants have criminal history category one.
• Public comment deadline set for March 18, 2026.

Summary

The United States Sentencing Commission released proposed amendments to the federal sentencing guidelines on Jan. 30, 2026, focusing on two parts—A and B—of a new sentencing‑options framework. Part A refines guidance on selecting sentence types, while Part B seeks to expand the flexibility of Zones B and C, and the commission is soliciting public comment through March 18, 2026.

Data presented show that expanding Zones B and C would shift roughly 6,864 defendants into the new Zone B and 4,610 into the new Zone C, all U.S. citizens statutorily eligible for probation. Currently, 27,656 such individuals received sentences in FY 2024, with only 16% receiving non‑incarceration outcomes. Recidivism for non‑incarceration sentences is 19% versus 42% for prison sentences, and rearrest rates are lowest in criminal‑history category 1.

The analysis highlights that most of the individuals moving into the expanded zones are first‑time offenders (category 1), with similar demographic profiles to those already in Zones B and C. Notably, 70% of those shifting into Zone B come from current Zone C, and all moving into Zone C are from Zone D. Average imprisonment lengths for the new Zone B and C populations are 16 and 38 months respectively—significantly longer than current averages—while a substantial share receive sentences below guideline ranges.

If adopted, the amendments could broaden the use of probation, split sentences, and conditional confinement, potentially lowering federal prison populations and associated costs. Stakeholders are urged to comment, as the changes may reshape sentencing discretion, affect recidivism outcomes, and influence broader criminal‑justice reform efforts.

Original Description

(February 13, 2026) The Commission is seeking public comment on proposed amendments to the federal sentencing guidelines. Commission staff prepared a data presentation to inform public comment on a proposed amendment regarding sentencing options.