Aftershock Ready: Fueling New Madrid

Why It Matters

Strengthening fuel distribution capacity mitigates a single point of failure in disaster evacuation and relief, protecting economic continuity and public safety, while also delivering long‑term efficiency gains as fuel demand grows.

Summary

A new MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab thesis analyzes fuel distribution vulnerabilities in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), identifying Memphis and nearby terminals as critical bottlenecks for emergency response. Using Operational Flow Capacity (OFC) modeling, the study quantifies baseline and surge capacity, revealing that upgrades to high‑throughput terminals in Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock and Evansville, along with added gates, faster loading bays, expanded driver availability, and modernized pump infrastructure, would markedly improve resilience. The research argues that these targeted investments not only prepare the system for a potential NMSZ earthquake but also accommodate a projected 36% rise in U.S. gasoline demand through 2031. Recommendations call for coordinated federal, state and private‑sector action to revise Hours of Service rules and prioritize infrastructure enhancements.