Aftershock Ready: Fueling New Madrid
•February 16, 2026
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Why It Matters
Strengthening fuel distribution capacity mitigates a single point of failure in disaster evacuation and relief, protecting economic continuity and public safety, while also delivering long‑term efficiency gains as fuel demand grows.
Aftershock ready: Fueling New Madrid
Key takeaways
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Fuel is a critical vulnerability in disaster response. With U.S. gasoline consumption exceeding 12 million barrels per day and projected to grow 36% from 2021 to 2031, fuel distribution bottlenecks can quickly undermine evacuation, relief operations, and economic continuity during major seismic events.
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The New Madrid Seismic Zone poses high systemic risk. The research focuses on the NMSZ region, identifying Memphis, Tennessee, as a particularly high-risk node due to its proximity to seismic activity and its central role in fuel throughput.
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Operational Flow Capacity (OFC) modeling reveals system constraints. Using a fuel distribution model developed by the MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab, researchers analyzed baseline capacity and surge scenarios to pinpoint constrained terminals and identify where targeted investments would deliver the highest resilience gains.
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Targeted infrastructure, labor, and policy upgrades can strengthen resilience. Recommended interventions include upgrading high-throughput terminals in Memphis, St. Louis, Little Rock, and Evansville; increasing gates and loading bays; expanding truck driver availability; revisiting Hours of Service (HoS) flexibility; and modernizing fuel pump infrastructure to improve throughput and reduce idle time.
Editor's Note: The SCM thesis Aftershock Ready: Fueling New Madrid was authored by Abdullah Alsukairi and Olivia Morton, and supervised by Tim Russell ([email protected]). For more information on this research, please contact the thesis supervisor.
Emergency preparedness relies on fuel as an essential commodity to support evacuation and relief operations tied to natural disasters. However, fuel distribution during major disasters often falls short of demand. In the United States, average daily fuel consumption exceeds 12 million barrels, which is supported by an intricate fuel distribution system. Consequently, when demand exceeds capacity, bottlenecks result. These bottlenecks highlight the need to better understand fuel distribution systems before and during natural disasters.
This research is a case study of the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) that offers federal, state, and local strategic intervention guidelines that could be applied during and after an NMSZ seismic event.
Fuel under pressure: Modeling system gaps for seismic emergencies
U.S. gasoline demand is expected to increase 36% from 2021 to 2031. Given the market outlook, interventions are worthy of investment, regardless of a disaster event. Improvement of system capacity is a proactive measure that not only prepares the system for emergency response but also allows the system to support predicted growth in demand.
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The MIT Humanitarian Supply Chain Lab developed a fuel distribution model that has been adapted to inform fuel management strategies in the NMSZ. Within this model, operational flow capacity (OFC) analysis estimates a system’s baseline capacity and identifies which parameters can be adjusted to meet surge capacity expectations during and after an emergency.
To guide emergency fuel planning, the research focused on the following questions:
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How can fuel distribution system analysis best support emergency planning efforts for federal, state, and local jurisdictions in the U.S. based on a future NMSZ event?
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How could updated modeling results assist with government interventions, including policy action and improved operational efficiencies?
Stress testing fuel infrastructure for emergency events
In seismic emergency planning for the NMSZ region, interdictions—disruptions or shutdowns of critical infrastructure—are a key factor in scenario development. The likelihood and impact of any given scenario are closely tied to the magnitude and location of the seismic event, with Memphis, Tennessee, identified as a particularly high-risk area due to its proximity to the seismic center.
To strengthen fuel system resilience, the following interventions are recommended:
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Prioritize infrastructure upgrades at high-throughput terminals, especially in:
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Memphis, Tennessee
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St. Louis, Missouri
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Little Rock, Arkansas
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Evansville, Indiana
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These terminals exhibit the highest OFC and offer the most leverage for improving system resilience.
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Increase throughput by optimizing gate and bay operations, including:
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Adding more gates or loading bays
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Reducing average loading times per vehicle
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Expand labor and logistics support to keep up with increased fuel demands:
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Increase staffing at terminal gates
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Expand the availability of truck drivers, particularly during extended hours of service (HoS)
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Reassess HoS regulations and scheduling flexibility in emergency contexts
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Upgrade fuel pump infrastructure across all NMSZ terminals to:
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Improve baseline flow rates without adding labor
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Decrease truck idle time
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Maximize truck throughput and efficiency
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Foster proactive collaboration among stakeholders, including federal, state, and private-sector partners, recognizing that seismic events offer no early warning and response efforts are often reactive by default
These targeted interventions offer high return on investment by addressing the system’s most constrained nodes and enabling faster, more efficient fuel distribution in a future NMSZ emergency.
FAQs
Q: What is the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), and why does it matter for fuel planning?
The NMSZ is a major U.S. seismic risk area centered near Memphis, Tennessee, where a significant earthquake could disrupt fuel terminals, transportation routes, and distribution infrastructure critical to emergency response operations.
Q: What is Operational Flow Capacity (OFC) in fuel distribution modeling?
Operational Flow Capacity (OFC) measures a fuel system’s baseline throughput and surge potential, helping planners identify bottlenecks and evaluate which infrastructure, labor, or policy changes would increase system resilience during emergencies.
Q: Why invest in fuel system upgrades before a disaster occurs?
Fuel demand is projected to rise significantly over the next decade, meaning capacity upgrades improve both everyday efficiency and disaster readiness—delivering return on investment regardless of whether a seismic event occurs.
Q: What practical actions can governments take to improve fuel resilience?
Federal, state, and local agencies can prioritize high-throughput terminal upgrades, optimize gate and bay operations, increase staffing and driver availability, modernize fuel pumps, and coordinate public-private planning to ensure faster fuel distribution during seismic emergencies.
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