Roeth: How to Evaluate New Trucking Technology without Falling for the Hype

Why It Matters

Misaligned expectations lead to wasted investment and slower ROI, so rigorous evaluation protects fleet profitability and accelerates adoption of truly beneficial innovations.

Key Takeaways

• Expectation gap often ninefold between vendor claims and fleet needs
• Tech must be three times better to achieve adoption
• Demand transparent test data and credible survey methodology
• Cross‑check manufacturer info with peer fleet experiences
• Prioritize sources that share raw performance results

Pulse Analysis

The trucking sector is at a crossroads, with electrification, autonomous assistance, and advanced telematics promising dramatic fuel savings and productivity gains. Yet the speed of innovation has outpaced the industry’s ability to validate claims, creating a fertile ground for over‑optimistic marketing. Analysts estimate that up to 90% of projected efficiency improvements never materialize in real‑world operations, underscoring the need for a data‑first approach. Fleet leaders who anchor decisions in empirical evidence can separate genuine breakthroughs from hype, preserving capital for proven solutions.

A practical vetting framework begins with source credibility. Transparent testing protocols, full disclosure of sample sizes, and clear articulation of test conditions are non‑negotiable. Peer‑to‑peer benchmarking adds another layer of confidence, allowing managers to compare outcomes against fleets with similar routes, loads, and regulatory constraints. Surveys must be scrutinized for bias—understanding who funded the study, the respondents’ expertise, and the statistical rigor helps filter out inflated performance figures. By insisting on raw data and reproducible results, fleets can construct a reliable performance baseline before scaling.

Strategically, disciplined technology assessment translates into competitive advantage. Accurate ROI calculations enable fleets to allocate resources toward innovations that truly lower total cost of ownership, meet tightening emissions standards, and improve driver satisfaction. Moreover, a reputation for rigorous evaluation can attract manufacturers eager to prove their solutions in a skeptical market, fostering collaborative pilots rather than one‑off purchases. In an era where regulatory pressure and customer expectations converge, fleets that master the science of tech validation will lead the transition to a more efficient, sustainable freight ecosystem.

Roeth: How to evaluate new trucking technology without falling for the hype

Michael Roeth · Feb. 18, 2026

• New trucking tech often faces a 9× expectation gap; fleets should demand clear data, not just best‑case marketing claims.

• Innovations must deliver outsized, real‑world gains to overcome buyer skepticism and win fleet adoption.

• Vet sources carefully; transparent testing, credible surveys, and peer insights reduce costly tech missteps.

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From time to time, we all seek advice and counsel from others. With so much going on in the trucking industry, including rapid technological change and an ever‑changing regulatory landscape, some of us may need to seek more input from outside sources.

Of course, it’s good to hear what other people think. Perhaps someone has experience with a new technology, powertrain, diagnostic tool, or regulation. The thing is, not all input is equal.

Manufacturers always try to put the best face on their products, so they focus their marketing efforts on their benefits. Fleet managers tend to be a little more pessimistic and discount those manufacturer figures. They are considering using their hard‑earned money to buy them.

In the NACFE Guidance Report, Electric Trucks – Where They Make Sense, Rick Mihelic, NACFE’s director of emerging technologies, cited a Harvard Business Review article titled “Eager Sellers and Stony Buyers: Understanding the Psychology of New‑Product Adoption.” John Gourville summarized a range of studies that highlight that a new technology would need to be three times better than the existing one to have the best chance of market adoption. Complicating this, producers of new technology often overvalue its benefits by a factor of three. In total, he states:

“The result is a mismatch of nine to one, or nine times, between what innovators think consumers desire and what consumers really want.”

I am not implying that manufacturers deliberately mislead fleets about the benefits of their products, but claims are often based on best‑case scenarios.

That being said, speaking with the manufacturer of a new product or technology is a good place to start. And talking to other fleets is also part of a good strategy to learn how a product or technology behaves—or might behave—in the real world.

It is common for fleet managers to do some “desk research,” i.e., search the internet, before contacting a manufacturer or another fleet. There's a lot of information available online, but not all of it should be given the same weight.

My children occasionally ran around with some not‑so‑great friends when they were younger. My wife, Letty, would always caution them:

“If you sleep with dogs, you are going to wake up with fleas.”

It might seem a bit harsh, but I think that philosophy can also apply to information sources. The point I am trying to make here is that when you are researching a product or technology, make sure you vet the sources you consult and weigh the information you get from them accordingly. Sources that are willing to share test results or other data used to reach their conclusions should be considered more valuable.

Transparency is a big deal when evaluating data. If you are presented with survey results, make sure to ask about:

• the number of people who participated,

• how the survey was conducted,

• the motivations of those providing the data,

• how well they understand the trucking industry and your specific business, and

• whether they are capable of analyzing the data and accurately sharing how the product will improve your business.

Failure to do this could result in a nasty case of fleas.

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About the author

Michael Roeth is the Executive Director of the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE). He serves on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Technologies and Approaches for Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium and Heavy‑Duty Vehicles and has held various positions with Navistar and Behr/Cummins.