The Minerals of War: Criticality in an Age of AI and Artillery

Why It Matters

Mineral shortages will constrain the energy transition, AI rollout and defence readiness, reshaping geopolitics and corporate supply strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Global mineral demand could double by 2050
• Defence now a major, under‑counted mineral consumer
• Rare earths, tungsten, tantalum face war‑driven spikes
• Supply competition intensifies across EVs, AI, military
• Strategic stockpiles remain insufficient for prolonged high‑tech conflict

Pulse Analysis

The "mineral imperative" has become a cornerstone of 21st‑century economics, with four traditional forces—population growth, urbanisation, electrification and digitalisation—already pushing demand for copper, steel, aluminium and rare‑earth elements beyond historic levels. Analysts now estimate that to keep pace with current development trajectories, global metal production must roughly double within the next thirty years, a figure that swells further when net‑zero targets are fully pursued. This surge is not merely a statistical artifact; it translates into massive infrastructure projects, from gigawatt‑scale wind farms to data‑centre clusters, each anchored by a dense lattice of extracted resources.

A new, potent catalyst has entered the equation: modern warfare. Advanced weapons systems—hypersonic missiles, autonomous drones, precision‑guided munitions—rely heavily on the same high‑performance alloys, permanent‑magnet rare‑earths, and specialty metals that power electric vehicles and AI hardware. A single Tomahawk cruise missile, for example, can contain over ten kilograms of silver and significant quantities of tungsten, tantalum and heavy rare‑earths. When scaled to the thousands of missiles and drones deployed in recent conflicts, the mineral drain rivals that of entire renewable‑energy supply chains, creating sudden, high‑intensity spikes in demand for already constrained commodities.

The convergence of civilian and military mineral needs forces policymakers and industry leaders to rethink supply‑chain resilience. Traditional demand models used by multilateral lenders omit defence consumption, leaving strategic stockpiles woefully undersized for a protracted high‑tech war. Initiatives such as the United States' $12 billion Project Vault aim to buffer critical‑mineral supplies, but the scale of required reserves—covering rare‑earths, battery metals and semiconductor inputs—far exceeds current allocations. Integrating defence‑driven demand into long‑term forecasting is essential to avoid bottlenecks that could stall both climate‑focused investments and national security capabilities.