Lithium Demand to Surge Sixfold by 2040, but Zimbabwe’s Role Limited by Refining Constraints

Key Takeaways

• Lithium demand projected to increase sixfold by 2040, led by EVs
• Zimbabwe’s production share drops from 9% to 6% as refining lags
• Export ban and quotas force local lithium sulphate processing by 2027
• Global supply dominated by Australia, Chile, China; Africa lacks refining
• Value capture risk: most profits stay with overseas processors

Pulse Analysis

The lithium surge is a direct by‑product of the electrification wave reshaping transportation and power grids. Battery‑electric vehicles are expected to grow from 10.5 million units in 2022 to over 74 million by 2035, while grid‑scale storage installations multiply to balance intermittent renewable generation. This demand shift has pushed lithium from niche industrial uses to the core of the clean‑energy supply chain, inflating prices and prompting miners worldwide to accelerate production pipelines.

In Africa, Zimbabwe has emerged as the continent’s primary lithium source, contributing roughly 9.3% of global output in 2024. Yet the country’s refining ecosystem remains embryonic; only one plant reaches lithium‑sulphate grade. To retain more value, the government halted raw concentrate exports in early 2026 and replaced them with a quota‑driven regime that obliges exporters to invest in local processing. The policy aims to phase out concentrate shipments by 2027, but building commercially viable refineries will require substantial capital, technology transfer, and stable power—resources that are currently scarce.

For investors and policymakers, the divergence between abundant raw material and limited downstream capacity creates both risk and opportunity. Companies that can secure early‑stage refining partnerships in Zimbabwe may capture premium margins as the global market tightens around 2030, when existing projects peak and new supply lags. Conversely, continued reliance on overseas processors could leave African producers vulnerable to price volatility and export restrictions. Strategic focus on infrastructure, skilled labor, and financing will be essential for Zimbabwe to transform its resource advantage into sustained economic growth.