Nickel Demand to Grow on EV Shift, but Africa’s Global Production Share Remains Small

Key Takeaways

• Nickel demand projected to rise with EV and storage growth
• Batteries made up 13% of nickel use in 2023
• Africa supplies only 3% of global nickel output
• Indonesia drives 47% production increase from 2019‑2023
• No African nation expected among top producers by 2040

Pulse Analysis

Nickel has moved from a niche alloy component to a cornerstone of the lithium‑ion battery supply chain. The OECD estimates that batteries already accounted for 13 % of global nickel consumption in 2023, and that share will climb as automakers replace cobalt with nickel to cut costs and improve energy density. This structural demand boost aligns with the rapid rollout of electric vehicles and stationary storage, creating a long‑term upward trajectory for nickel prices and prompting miners worldwide to accelerate project pipelines.

Despite holding roughly 5 % of the world’s nickel reserves, Africa’s contribution to production remains modest at about 3 % today. Madagascar, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire together account for just over 2 % of global output, and the OECD projects no African country will break into the top‑ten producers by 2040. Limited infrastructure, higher extraction costs, and competition from low‑cost producers such as Indonesia constrain the continent’s ability to scale. Consequently, African projects face financing hurdles and longer development timelines compared with their Asian counterparts.

Investors and policymakers should watch how the supply gap is addressed, because a sustained surge in EV demand could tighten nickel markets if African output does not expand. Companies are increasingly securing off‑take agreements in Indonesia and the Philippines, while African governments are drafting incentives to attract foreign capital. However, environmental and social licensing risks remain pronounced on the continent, potentially slowing project approvals. A balanced approach that couples responsible mining standards with strategic incentives could enable Africa to play a larger role in the critical minerals ecosystem.