Barrick Advances Lumwana Super Pit Expansion as Copper Output Rises

Why It Matters

The on‑time, on‑budget expansion secures additional copper supply as demand accelerates, reinforcing Barrick’s growth strategy and shareholder returns.

Key Takeaways

• Lumwana expansion stays on schedule, first copper output expected Q1 2028
• 2026 capex forecast $750‑$850 million, total project cost about $2 billion
• Q1 copper output up 11% to 49,000 tonnes, costs rose 17%
• Gold production hit 719,000 oz, driving $5.22 billion revenue
• Board approved up to $3 billion share‑repurchase and $0.175 dividend

Pulse Analysis

Barrick Gold’s Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia remains firmly on track, with the first lift of the mill building wall completed in Q1 2026 and structural‑steel deliveries slated for June. The project, part of a $2 billion capital programme, is expected to begin delivering copper from the new pit by the end of the first quarter of 2028. Staying within the lower end of the $750‑$850 million annual capex guidance signals disciplined project management and reduces financing risk, a crucial factor as global copper demand accelerates amid electric‑vehicle and renewable‑energy growth.

While Barrick reported an 11 percent rise in copper output to 49,000 tonnes, the company’s cost profile slipped, with cash costs climbing to $2.57 per pound and all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) to $3.67 per pound. The increase reflects higher royalties tied to stronger copper prices and rising diesel costs, which are sensitive to oil price fluctuations. Nevertheless, Barrick reaffirmed its 2026 cost guidance, betting that operational efficiencies and a $70‑per‑barrel oil assumption will keep expenses in line with peers, preserving margins in a tightening market.

Strong gold performance bolstered Barrick’s earnings, with 719,000 ounces produced and revenue of $5.22 billion, driving net earnings to $1.60 billion and EBITDA to $2.76 billion. The company’s commitment to return capital—evidenced by a $0.175 per‑share dividend and a $3 billion share‑repurchase authorization—underscores confidence in cash‑flow generation. Investors see the dual‑commodity strategy as a hedge against copper volatility, while the on‑schedule Lumwana expansion positions Barrick to capture higher copper premiums in the coming decade.