Copper Price: Goldman Maintains Year-End Forecast, Traxys Sees $15,000

Why It Matters

Supply constraints and strong Chinese demand could push copper higher, reshaping pricing expectations for miners and investors ahead of 2025.

Key Takeaways

• Copper holds above $13,200/tonne amid Middle East supply risks
• China to ban sulphuric acid exports in May, tightening production
• Goldman keeps 2024 price target at $12,650/tonne despite surplus
• DRC and Chile face potential output cuts from acid shortages
• Traxys projects copper reaching $15,000/tonne within 2‑3 years

Pulse Analysis

The copper market is now navigating a perfect storm of geopolitical tension and input scarcity. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for sulphuric acid, a critical leaching agent in copper refining. With China—responsible for roughly one‑fifth of global acid production—set to ban exports from May 1, miners that rely on imported acid, especially in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile, face potential production curtailments. This supply‑side pressure has already nudged spot prices above $13,200 a tonne, reinforcing the metal’s recent rally toward its all‑time high.

On the demand side, China’s copper consumption is accelerating as smelter activity reaches unprecedented levels. Satellite imagery confirms record‑high throughput at Chinese facilities, while inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have sharply declined. Analysts describe the current period as the peak consumption season, with growth rates outpacing historical norms. Despite a projected 490,000‑tonne surplus, Goldman Sachs maintains a year‑end price forecast of $12,650 per tonne, reflecting confidence that demand momentum and supply bottlenecks will offset excess supply.

Looking ahead, market participants remain bullish on copper’s long‑term trajectory. Traxys, a leading commodity trader, envisions prices climbing to $15,000 a tonne within the next 24‑36 months, driven by sustained infrastructure spending and the metal’s role in the energy transition. Such a price horizon could reshape investment strategies, prompting miners to secure alternative acid sources and investors to reassess exposure to copper‑linked assets. However, the outlook remains contingent on the resolution of Middle East tensions and the implementation of China’s acid export ban, factors that could either amplify or temper the anticipated price surge.