Goldman Says Central Bank Gold-Buying Stronger than Thought, to Reaccelerate

Why It Matters

Stronger-than‑expected central‑bank buying signals a robust long‑term demand for gold, reinforcing its safe‑haven status and influencing price expectations across the market.

Key Takeaways

• Central banks bought ~50 tonnes gold in March, up from 29
• Goldman expects average 60 tonnes monthly gold purchases through 2026
• $5,400/oz 2026 gold price target, though short‑term pressure possible
• Sovereign buying rises as diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty intensifies

Pulse Analysis

Goldman’s updated model corrects a data gap that began in August 2025 when UK trade figures stopped fully capturing gold outflows from London vaults. By integrating private‑source surveys, the bank now estimates central‑bank purchases at roughly 50 tonnes in March, a sharp rise from the earlier 29‑tonne figure, and forecasts an average of 60 tonnes per month through 2026. This correction highlights the value of alternative data in gauging sovereign behavior, as traditional reporting often lags behind real‑time transactions.

The bullish outlook supports Goldman’s $5,400‑per‑ounce target for the end of 2026, reflecting both diversification drives by sovereign investors and a hedge against heightened geopolitical risk. Nonetheless, the firm cautions that bullion could feel short‑term pressure if market turbulence forces investors to sell liquid assets for cash. If equity markets tumble, gold’s appeal as a liquidity reserve could further buoy prices, aligning near‑term moves with the longer‑term bullish trajectory.

The resurgence of sovereign gold buying arrives as central banks reassess reserve compositions amid persistent inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy in major economies. Diversification into precious metals offers a non‑correlated store of value, especially as flashpoints in Eastern Europe and the Middle East intensify. Moreover, the anticipated increase in central‑bank purchases may tighten physical supply, prompting mining companies to accelerate production and potentially influencing spot‑market premiums, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe‑haven asset for both institutions and private investors.