ICSG Forecasts Secondary Copper Output Boost

Why It Matters

Higher scrap‑derived copper output and a growing surplus could pressure copper prices while reinforcing the industry’s shift toward circular‑economy sourcing.

Key Takeaways

• Secondary copper production to grow 5.7% in 2027
• Primary refined copper output projected up 2.3% next year
• Global copper usage growth trimmed to 2% in 2027
• 2026 surplus forecast 96,000 metric tons, reversing prior deficit
• 2027 surplus expected 377,000 metric tons, boosting scrap demand

Pulse Analysis

The International Copper Study Group’s latest forecast underscores a pivotal shift in the copper supply chain: recycled‑content copper is set to outpace primary mining output. A 5.7% rise in secondary refined production reflects expanding scrap collection infrastructure and new smelting capacity across Europe and Asia. This trend aligns with broader ESG pressures, as manufacturers and end‑users increasingly prioritize responsibly sourced metals to meet carbon‑reduction targets and regulatory scrutiny.

Demand dynamics are equally nuanced. While the world’s appetite for refined copper remains positive, growth has been revised down to 2% in 2027, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and lingering supply‑chain disruptions. Slower demand, combined with a robust recycling pipeline, creates a pronounced surplus—96,000 metric tons in 2026 and an estimated 377,000 tons in 2027. Such excess inventory typically exerts downward pressure on spot prices, prompting producers to reassess capacity expansions and investors to recalibrate exposure to copper‑linked assets.

For industry stakeholders, the forecast signals both risk and opportunity. Smelters with flexible feedstock capabilities can capture higher margins by processing cheaper scrap, while miners may face tighter pricing and need to accelerate cost‑efficiency initiatives. Meanwhile, downstream sectors—electronics, renewable‑energy infrastructure, and electric‑vehicle manufacturers—must monitor price volatility as it impacts bill‑of‑materials costs. The growing surplus also reinforces the economic case for circular‑economy investments, positioning recycled copper as a strategic hedge against future supply shocks.