It May Be a Long Wait for the Next Big Rally in Nickel Prices – by Brian Donovan (Globe and Mail – February 24, 2026)

Why It Matters

Supply‑tightening from Indonesia could lift nickel prices, affecting battery manufacturers and investors, but the market lacks the catalyst for a sharp surge.

Key Takeaways

• Indonesia supplies 62% of global nickel
• Prices rose to $17k/tonne in Dec 2025
• Production forecast 4.1 Mt in 2026
• 2022 price spike hit $100k/tonne, LME halted
• Tightening signals may delay next major rally

Pulse Analysis

Indonesia’s dominance in nickel production underpins the metal’s price dynamics. With the archipelago responsible for nearly two‑thirds of global output, any policy shift or export restriction reverberates through the supply chain, especially as electric‑vehicle (EV) battery demand accelerates. The modest price uptick to $17,000 per tonne reflects market anticipation of reduced Indonesian shipments, yet the overall surplus from other producers tempers expectations for a steep rally.

Historical volatility illustrates nickel’s sensitivity to geopolitical and financial shocks. The unprecedented March 2022 surge to $100,000 per tonne, triggered by the Ukraine war and margin calls on Chinese stainless‑steel giant Tsingshan, forced the London Metal Exchange to pause trading. Since early 2023, prices have trended downward, stabilising around $17,000 after a brief high in late 2024. This pattern underscores how external events, financing pressures, and inventory levels can rapidly reshape pricing.

Looking ahead, forecasts of 4.1 Mt production in 2026 suggest a modest supply increase, but the pace of EV adoption and potential Indonesian export curbs could create a tighter market. Investors should monitor Indonesia’s regulatory stance, Chinese demand trends, and emerging battery‑grade nickel projects in Canada and New Caledonia. While a dramatic price rally appears unlikely in the near term, incremental gains may reward strategic exposure to the metal’s long‑term growth narrative.