Natural Disasters, Mineral Resources, and Armed Conflict: A Spatial Durbin Model Analysis of the African Great Lakes Region

Why It Matters

Understanding the dual impact of resource dependence and climate‑driven disasters helps investors and policymakers mitigate security risks that threaten the profitability and sustainability of critical‑mineral projects in a geopolitically sensitive region.

Key Takeaways

• Mineral dependence reduces conflict locally and regionally
• Natural disasters raise armed conflict frequency
• Economic growth and density heighten conflict risk
• Good governance and low unemployment curb violence

Pulse Analysis

The African Great Lakes region has become a focal point for global competition over critical minerals needed for the clean‑energy transition. As demand for cobalt, lithium and rare earths surges, major powers and non‑state actors vie for access, intensifying geopolitical stakes. This backdrop, coupled with climate‑induced hazards, creates a volatile environment where investment decisions must account for more than just ore grades and logistics.

Using a Spatial Durbin Model, researchers analyzed 23 years of data to uncover how mineral dependence and natural disasters spill over across borders. The model shows that countries rich in extractive assets experience a paradoxical peace‑keeping effect, dampening armed conflict within their borders and in adjacent states. Conversely, the occurrence of floods, landslides or droughts correlates with a sharp rise in violent incidents, highlighting the destabilizing power of climate shocks. Economic variables such as rapid growth, higher GDP per capita and dense populations further exacerbate tensions, while robust institutions and low unemployment act as buffers.

For multinational mining firms, the findings translate into a clear mandate: risk assessments must integrate environmental and security dimensions alongside traditional financial metrics. Developing comprehensive mitigation strategies—ranging from community resilience programs to partnerships with local governments—can reduce exposure to disaster‑driven conflict. Policymakers, too, can leverage these insights to strengthen governance frameworks, improve employment opportunities, and invest in climate adaptation, thereby fostering a more stable investment climate for the critical‑mineral supply chain.